President Joe Biden could face voter turnout problems in 2024. The experimental stealth campaign in South Carolina's Democratic primary also highlights the ways in which Republican officials are trying to exploit Mr. Biden's weaknesses.
The conservative group, which is funded by anonymous donors, sent a mailer to about 75,000 Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, a state with a large number of black voters, ahead of the Feb. 3 primary, warning that the administration's menthol He criticized Biden for promoting a tobacco ban. Black smokers are more likely to use menthol cigarettes, according to research cited by the FDA, and the potential ban has divided civil rights groups.
Biden won the South Carolina primary with 96% support, but the bigger question is whether the copy obtained by NBC News urged recipients to stay home. Such an outcome, or encouraging voters to consider third-party options, could have an even bigger impact in the fall in close states.
A person familiar with the advocacy strategy of the group, Building America's Future, told NBC News that the nonprofit has yet to determine how mail carriers influenced recipients' votes in the South Carolina primary. It is currently being analyzed, but said it plans to reinvest in a similar strategy later this year.
The group plans to spend more than $1 million on efforts aimed at swaying Democratic voters away from Biden in the general election, primarily in battleground states. The plan is to use a combination of television, digital, radio and direct mail to target primarily black voters in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin.But the group may also target younger voters, as it has in the past. During the golf WM Phoenix Open This month we focus on concerns about the possible ban of nicotine pouches like Zyn.
Targeting supporters of other parties and trying to sway members is nothing new and is a key tactic of both parties. For example, the nonprofit arm of the Democratic Party's main Senate super PAC funded ads attacking Republican candidates from the right in 2018. In 2016, the Trump campaign used the term “superpredator” to describe some criminals in an ad campaign in battleground states, using Hillary Clinton's defense of the 1990s major crime bill. base.
But a new possibility in 2024 is how receptive voters will be to messages urging them to abandon Biden and former President Donald Trump. Mr. Trump has long struggled with some traditional Republican voters, and recent polls have shown Mr. Biden's decline among black voters and young voters.
Much of the political strategy and commentary focuses on converting supporters from one candidate to another. But even subtracting your opponent's votes is part of a political campaign. And the volatile political environment could lead to more of this kind of activity in the eight-plus months between now and Election Day. Targeted mailers, text messages, and digital ads are likely to be preferred over more discreet approaches. TV ads watched by millions of people in battleground states.
“Leadership is about setting priorities. Instead of banning menthol cigarettes, President Biden should stop the flow of illegal drugs into our country, make food more affordable, and make college more affordable. ,” the Building America's Future mailer said.
A poll commissioned by the group found that a majority of South Carolina Democratic primary voters supported a menthol cigarette ban, but a significant proportion opposed or had no feelings about it. These voters, particularly black voters, responded more negatively to the term Biden “criminalized” menthol cigarettes. And the numbers underscored an important trend seen in other polls: Biden's relative weakness among younger Democrats.
The people said the group believes that the issue, in part due to progressive criticism of Biden's “tough-on-crime” past, will help assuage the minds of these voters. He added that he believed that this would lead to further efforts to strengthen the government's policy and further divide the coalition government. They believe there is potential for Republicans to win among these voters.
Millionaires, little-known spendthrifts
Building America's Future is a nonprofit organization, so not much is known about it. The group has partnered with a handful of prominent Republican consultants, including Genera Peck, who served as early campaign manager for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign, according to the group's recently obtained 2021 tax documents. It is shown that
Although the group predates DeSantis' campaign, the Washington Post reported last year that Building America's Future played a role in a broader fundraising mechanism for pro-DeSantis efforts. Reported.
This isn't the first time a nonprofit organization has tackled the issue of menthol cigarettes. Fox News reported last year that the group sent similar messages, targeting three states as well as a handful of congressional districts.
The Biden administration first announced it would ban menthol-flavored cigarettes in 2021.
Janet Woodcock, acting FDA commissioner at the time, said, “Banning menthol, the last acceptable flavor in cigarettes, and banning all flavors in cigars is unwarranted, especially with these deadly products.'' This will help save lives of people affected by the virus,” it said in a statement at the time.
In its first statement announcing it was working toward a ban, the Food and Drug Administration said more than 80% of black smokers smoke menthol cigarettes, compared to 30% of white smokers. .
That's why this issue is especially important to the Black community. And that's why the fight over this repeatedly postponed policy has raised so much money and divided prominent black leaders and organizations.
Attorneys Benjamin Crump and others warned that the ban could put black smokers in danger and targeted by law enforcement. In an interview with American Urban Radio Networks last year, Crump mentioned the case of Eric Garner, who was killed in an apparent chokehold by an NYPD police officer in 2014 after he was accused of selling loose cigarettes.
“We have to remember that if you give police another reason to confront black people, they are very likely to use that in a criminal case,” Crump said.
Some argue that by enforcing the ban, Mr. Biden risks alienating his support base ahead of the 2024 election. This is the policy taken by tobacco giant Altria in a poll shared by National Review in November.
Proponents of the ban argue that removing menthol and other flavorings will help smokers quit and stop many people, especially young people, from starting to smoke in the first place. Prominent black supporters of the prohibition movement, including NAACP President Derrick Johnson, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones, and former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, rally supporters of the anti-smoking movement. It appears in an advertisement for the Tobacco Free Kids Campaign. policy.
In one video, Johnson pushed back against the idea that a ban could pose a political risk to Biden.
“It's important to the long-term health of our community. To say in this ninth hour that it poses a political risk is a red herring argument. The concerns of the Black community are the price of gas, the price of bread. , the future of our children, and the safety of our communities,” Johnson said.
“We are the largest civil rights organization in black communities in 47 states, and no one is politicizing this,” he continued.
