Ukraine's shockingly weak defense helps Russia advance

Russian forces continue to make small but rapid advances outside the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, due in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and reduced Western aid.

But there is another reason why Kremlin forces are advancing into the region. That is because Ukraine's defense capabilities are weak.

A sparse, primitive line of ditches stretches across the area west of Avdiyivka, which Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times image review by commercial satellite company Planet Labs. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that would help slow Russian tanks and protect highways and important terrain.

Avdiivka has been the site of a fierce stalemate over the past nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia took control of the city on February 17, marking its first major victory since May last year, Ukrainian forces claimed to have secured a defensive line outside the city.

However, Russian troops captured three villages west of Avdiivka in one week, and at least one is in dispute with another village.

Satellite images of the scale shown here are widely available. Privately, U.S. officials say they are concerned that Ukraine has not strengthened its defenses quickly or sufficiently, as Russian forces slowly but steadily advance beyond Avdiivka. He said he may face the consequences of this in the future.

British military intelligence announced Thursday that Russian troops had advanced. about 4 miles In the past two weeks, attacks have been launched from central Avdiivka, a small but unusually rapid advance compared to previous offensive operations.

Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The region has been under attack since 2014, and Ukraine has maintained small control over the area since Russia launched a full-scale invasion two years ago.

However, Ukrainian military defenses on the outskirts of Avdiivka show rudimentary earthworks with connecting trenches for infantry units to reach the enemy's closest firing positions, but little else. .

Strengthening Russia's defense

The lack of strong Ukrainian entrenchments in the region is especially noticeable when compared to the formidable Russian defenses that halted Kiev's advance in an ultimately unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer.

The Russian stronghold outside the southern village of Belbove, which Ukraine unsuccessfully tried to retake this fall, presents a very different picture.

Unlike the poorly fortified village that the Russian military is aiming to capture on the outskirts of Avdiivka, Verbove has concentric fortifications. It begins with a trench wide enough to trap an advancing tank or armored vehicle, followed by a mesh of cement obstacles known as dragon's teeth, which are also used to stop vehicles, and finally followed by vast trenches for infantry.

Satellite images from February show layered Russian defenses west of Verbove, with thousands of shell craters visible in the surrounding fields.

“Very expensive option”

There are many possible reasons for Ukraine's apparent lack of defense.

Ukrainian officials were too focused on offensive operations last year to devote the resources needed to build trenches and tank traps like the ones Russian engineers have been constructing in the country's south since late 2022. That's possible, U.S. officials and military experts said.

“Who cares, who would have considered it as an option – because it is a very expensive option – building a defensive line, etc. No one,” retired Ukrainian army colonel Serhiy Hlavsky said at the time. He pointed out that Ukraine had few resources to spare.

U.S. officials said psychological factors may also have been at play. If the Ukrainian military digs a large number of mines in a particular area to stop Russian advances, it is a tacit admission that they are unlikely to carry out offensive operations in the same area in the future. It will be. They would effectively be ceding the territory to the Russian military, officials said.

While Moscow began building a defensive line in the south more than six months before Kiev's counterattack, Ukraine appears to have begun planning new fortifications just three months earlier, when government officials announced the creation of a working group to coordinate efforts between authorities and military authorities. .

Officials said military forces stationed in the area would be responsible for building the first line of defense, while civilian authorities would build the second line with help from private contractors. Ukraine's Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal said that about 30 billion Ukrainian hryvnia (about $800 million) has been allocated to the construction of the fortress this year.

During a visit near the front lines in late November, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the eastern Donetsk region, where Mr. Avdiivka is located, “will receive maximum attention,” adding: “There is a need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures. ” was pointed out.

However, Pasi Paloinen blackbird groupThe group, which analyzes satellite images and social media content of the battlefield, said “nothing significant has happened” since Zelenskiy's visit.

Outside Avdiivka, “new positions are being prepared, but they do not yet constitute a particularly strong defensive line,” Paloinen said, adding that their size does not rival the fortresses in southern Russia.

Ukrainian authorities said they lacked the manpower to carry out the construction work. In mid-January, local authorities in the western Ivano-Frankivsk region announced they were looking for 300 workers to help build fortifications in the Donetsk region, more than 800 miles to the east.

“We are short on engineer units. And even the units we have are short on equipment,” Rabsky said. By comparison, Russia had far more equipment, materiel and experienced personnel in building its defense lines, he and Paloinen said.

The lack of a strong defense line outside of Avdiivka has been condemned in recent days by several Ukrainian journalists in an unusual public criticism of the military.

Delays in the construction of the fortifications mean the Ukrainian army may be forced to strengthen its defense lines under Russian artillery fire, making its mission exponentially more difficult.

Rabsky said Russia is currently preventing the Ukrainian military from strengthening its defenses with relentless artillery fire, including powerful glide bombs loaded with hundreds of tons of explosives that can destroy even well-prepared fortifications. Ta.

“The quality of these defense lines cannot be sufficient to resist the Russian military's large-scale bulldozer tactics,” Hrabsky said.

Oleksandra Mykolysyn contributed to the report.