detroit — Detroit's population will increase for the first time in 66 years, according to new Census Bureau estimates for 2023, which Mayor Mike Duggan hailed as a “day of celebration” for Michigan's largest city.
New U.S. Census Bureau data released Thursday shows Detroit grew by 1,852 people from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, bringing the city's population to 633,218. This is the first time since 1957 that the city's population has increased year over year, Duggan said.
“The goal of my administration when I started in 2014 was to grow,” Duggan told The Detroit News. “It took 10 years, but we're here. Today is a day of celebration.”
That's a far cry from just a year ago, when Mr. Duggan called the Census Bureau a “clown show” and accused it of undercounting the city's population. On Wednesday, Duggan noted that the department had updated those numbers over the past year. The city's population in 2022 was 631,366 in the latest update, while the original reading for 2022 was 620,376.
Detroit had the highest actual population growth rate of any city in Michigan, outpacing East Lansing, which grew by 1,266 people over the same period.
But the city's population is still down from 2020, when the federal government conducted a rigorous survey of residents along with field workers. The bureau estimates that more than 6,200 people have died in the city since April 1, 2020, when the decennial census officially became “Census Day.”
Asked about these numbers, Duggan emphasized the year-over-year growth rate.
“This is the first year that the Census Bureau has recognized our growth,” he said, noting that apartments are being built and homes are being repaired in the city. I think you can feel the vibrancy when you drive around the city.
Duggan insisted early in his tenure as mayor that Detroit's population growth would be evaluated. At the start of his first term in 2014, he said, “The government will be judged on one thing: whether it can reverse that trend.''
Upon assuming his second term in January 2018, the mayor said updated numbers showing the city's 2017 population growth were expected to be released in the spring, but that did not happen. When Mr. Duggan took office on January 1, 2014, the city's population was approximately 680,000.
“I've always believed that mayors should be judged by more people moving in and moving out,” Duggan said Wednesday. “It took longer than we expected, but right now, everywhere you look in the city, apartments are being built. People are fixing up their homes and moving in.”
Is Detroit's population under-estimated?
Kurt Metzger, a demographer who has studied Detroit extensively and director emeritus of Data Driven Detroit, said he estimates Detroit's population is closer to 650,000 people, perhaps as high as 660,000. He pointed to things like increased construction as signs of positive change and population growth in the city.
“The city has been growing in population for years, and it's not growing at all,” Metzger said of the bureau's numbers. “It will accelerate and the numbers for 2024 will show even higher growth. It will accelerate even more in the coming years.”
Metzger argued that the Census Bureau has undercounted the city over the years, largely due to how demolitions are counted relative to population. In many cities, demolition means a decline in population. But in Detroit, Metzger said, demolition often simply involves removing buildings that have been abandoned for years.
He added that the city's consistent challenges to the Census Bureau's estimates are working. Metzger said the updated numbers for 2022 are a result of that and giving the department a better understanding of what demolition means in Detroit.
“They're finally being listened to,” he said. “Last year's growth was real, maybe even more. We're making up for what we missed, certainly this was growth.”
What about other cities?
Detroit isn't the only large city in Michigan to lose population since 2020. Many of Michigan's largest communities have also shrunk over the same period, with Grand Rapids, Michigan's second-most populous city, down 1.15% to 196,608 from April 1, 2020. As of July 1, 2023, the state's third-largest city, Warren, had a population of 136,655, down 2% over the same period.
Nine of Michigan's 10 largest cities have shrunk at least in part in the three years since 2020. Macomb Township was an exception, with an increase of 480 people to 92,747 (about 1.19%).
Primarily, some of the state's smallest communities have grown since 2020, helping to slow the state's population decline. Similar to Detroit, Michigan's population decreased from 2020 to 10,077,674, but its population increased from 2022 to 2023 to 10,037,261. Roughly two-thirds of all Michiganders live in towns with a population of less than 50,000 people, which is higher than the national average of about 61%.
According to the Census Bureau, the place with the largest growth rate from 2020 to 2023 was Springdale Township in Manistee County in northwestern Michigan. An increase of 43.85%, from 853 people in 2020 to 1,227 people in 2023, an increase of 374 people.
Some local officials were surprised to hear of the development. But Springdale Township Clerk Penny Nelson said the increase in registered voters in recent years shows that's true.
“Statistics don't lie,” Nelson says. “There are more people here. It's people who live here, snowbirds. There are people who build vacation homes and live here, but they work within the state.”
She says there are many reasons why people choose Springdale Township. Taxes are low and the town is close to vacation destinations such as Crystal Mountain. Even if people wanted to expand, they probably wouldn't be able to. The town's infrastructure is built for small communities, not large subdivisions, Nelson said.
She said there are roads that aren't perfect and could probably be repaved. She travels about 40 minutes to Traverse City to shop. She's an avid shopper herself, and she jokes that towns like hers help keep Amazon afloat.
But being in a small town, Nelson said, offers a break you can't get anywhere else. She and her husband were both from Chicago, then she moved to Walled Lake and eventually settled in Springdale Township.
“People are tired of big cities,” Nelson said. “It drives me crazy just driving downstate, but when I come back here, it's such a lovely place. In big cities, people look around and say, 'This is how I want to live.' 'Is this the kind of life I want? What are my values? ”
What is driving the growth of small towns?
Reynolds Farley, professor emeritus at the University of Michigan's Center for Population Research, said that's probably what's driving so many people to small towns. The cost of living in large communities can be too much for people. Housing prices are soaring, especially near cities, and that's pushing people out, Reynolds said.
But he said Michigan is still cheaper than many other states. The state itself is relatively financially secure and the environment is “attractive,” Farley said. The growth of small towns bodes well for Michigan and what's to come, he said.
“People want to be in a place where they feel welcome,” Farley said. “For some, it's Detroit with its amenities; for others, it's a small town with low taxes and available land. Michigan has something for everyone.”
hharding@detroitnews.com
