Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the opening ceremony of the 3rd Belt and Road International Cooperation Forum held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 18, 2023.
Pedro Pardo | AFP | Getty Images
President Putin was received by President Xi at a welcome ceremony in Beijing at the beginning of his two-day state visit and said, “Russia-China relations are not opportunistic and are not hostile to anyone.'' That is fundamentally important.” In today's world situation, it has become one of the main stabilizing factors in the international arena. ”
The Kremlin said the two leaders will discuss “a wide range of issues related to comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction” and a joint statement and bilateral agreement will be signed.
“Russia-China relations have reached an all-time high, and they continue to strengthen even in the face of the difficult international situation,” Putin told Chinese state media ahead of his visit, according to Xinhua News Agency. .
Sam Green, director of the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told CNBC that relations between Russia and China are “inevitable.”
“It would be a stretch to call them strategic partners, but in many ways they are strategically aligned, perhaps not entirely of their own volition, perhaps not entirely to their liking. “Decisions that Western governments have made have been the very thing that has united them,” Green said Wednesday.
“Neither Putin nor Xi can achieve what they want to achieve domestically and internationally without the support of the other. That being said, it's not symmetrical, and China has much more to offer than Russia. “There's a lot of choice and flexibility,” he added.
When the Russian and Chinese leaders meet on Thursday, there is no doubt that they will highlight the positives from the visit ordered by President Xi Jinping. It is also President Putin's first overseas trip since he was re-elected for a fifth term in March.
The Kremlin announced on Thursday that the leaders “will hold extensive discussions on the full range of issues related to the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China,” but will not be able to meet Mr. Xi and President Putin's respective delegations. The talks, which are expected to last only 45 minutes, will precede the signing of a joint statement and several bilateral documents, news agency TASS reported. Afterwards, they will attend celebrations commemorating the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China.
Putin will also meet with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and visit the northeastern city of Harbin for a trade and investment fair, Russian state media said.
Analysts say that at the summit – one of more than 40 such meetings in the past 14 years – leaders will reaffirm their plans to pursue “open-ended” partnerships and joint economic projects. I expect it to be.
It is also likely that Russia and China will reiterate their fundamental ideological opposition to what they see as Western “imperialism” and hegemony as they seek a multipolar world order. The war in Ukraine – a conflict that China describes as a “crisis” – may also be on the agenda, as President Putin told Chinese media on Wednesday that he supports the 12-point peace plan that China proposed last year. expensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping return home after a reception after meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023.
Pavel Birkin | AFP | Getty Images
Putin and Xi make much of the close friendship they forged during their 24 and 11 years in power, respectively, but analysts say their relationship is more nuanced than it appears. Emphasized.
“Essentially, this is not an alliance. This is a very multifaceted, multidimensional relationship that has been building and evolving over some 30 years,” said Natasha, senior lecturer in war studies at King's College, London. Kurt told CNBC on Wednesday.
“While it may seem as if the only basis for this relationship is hostility toward the West, that is one factor, but there are many other factors that link the two,” she added.
Kurt said that while Russia benefits from continued trade with China, especially in the energy sector, Beijing also benefits from Russia's common interests in maintaining security and stability in Central Asia, as well as its military experience and defense technology sector. He pointed out that the country is benefiting from rapid development in the country. .
“I think it's a mistake to think of this as just a marriage of convenience, because in the West people have looked at this marriage that way for quite some time. So we basically underestimate the strength of the relationship. It means that we have evaluated it,” Kurt said. He said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on October 17, 2023.
Sergei Savostanov | AFP | Getty Images
CEPA analyst Green agrees that both Russia and China benefit greatly from this partnership and that it would be a mistake to mischaracterize this relationship as one of unequal parties. did.
“China benefits substantially from this relationship,” he said, noting that it has been able to buy Russian hydrocarbons at preferential prices and has access to investment opportunities. Russia also offers access to the Arctic, a region it covets from a strategic and trade standpoint, Green said.
Meanwhile, Russia is getting “a lot of rhetoric” and trade from the relationship, which “allows us to keep money flowing into our economy and is really important to President Putin.”
“But we're not getting it on the kind of preferential or friendly terms that we think of, and China continues to be a very tough bargain in all its trade relationships,” he said.
Despite the united front presented by Russia and China, disagreements and discomforts exist between the allies.
For example, Russia's war in Ukraine, while not openly criticized by Beijing, has disrupted global alliances and supply chains, making China nervous at a time when its economy is vulnerable to weaker growth and demand. There is.
Russia's support during the war has also made China a target for the United States, which seeks to punish countries it views as helping Russia evade sanctions and trade restrictions.
In early May, the United States imposed sanctions on more than a dozen Chinese companies for supplying Russia with dual-use parts that could be used in Russia's military equipment against Ukraine.
China strongly denies any wrongdoing, and Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said in comments reported by Reuters that “the Chinese side firmly opposes the United States' illegal unilateral sanctions.” . Russia has previously denied asking China for military equipment or financial aid.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcoming ceremony before the Russia-China talks in Moscow, Russia, March 21, 2023.
Mikhail Tereshchenko | Sputnik | via Reuters
Unlike Russia, which has accepted and ostensibly appeared to accept its economic and political isolation from the West and frequently praises the fact that its economy has overcome the challenges posed by international sanctions, China is currently not very ready to “decouple'' from the West. West.
“Russia has been approaching China for some time with a proposition: 'Neither of us like the structural power of the Western world…so why not break it down?'” …But China has not accepted that proposal at this time,” CEPA's Green said.
“China is not rhetorically the kind of country that the West wants to be, but neither rhetorically nor politically is it the kind of country that Russia wants to be.”
