Women's basketball bracket watch: USC looks like No. 1 seed

(Editor's note: This is part of our Bracket Central series, giving you an inside look at the lead-up to the men's and women's NCAA tournaments, as well as analysis and selections during the tournament).

Coming into this season, I was excited to see different storylines, but I was even more excited about what USC's season would be like. Last year, the brave Trojans made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly a decade, putting together a suffocating defensive team in coach Lindsey Gottlieb's second season. But after what top-ranked recruit JuJu Watkins committed in November 2022, all I was thinking while watching USC was what 2024 would mean when she plays for them. It was just that.

It was clear to anyone who knew Watkins' play and potential that she would make a big impact right away. And the proof is on display this season in Los Angeles.

Watkins has rightfully been at the helm of most of the stories coming out of the Galen Center, but it's time to change tack when it comes to the Trojans. This is not just a program that is becoming more popular. USC has shown it has what it takes to reach the Final Four, and he's even one of the few teams on the team that has what it takes to win a national championship.

Watkins is one of the sport's brightest stars, an All-American candidate and a leading freshman player of the year candidate. But the intentionality of how Gottlieb built the Trojans around her elevated them. Second star Mackenzie Forbes has been a strong pick-and-roll playmaker and scorer in the Pac-12 Conference, and is one of three players who made a big impact in moving to the Ivy League.

Kayla Padilla returned to her form as the de facto point guard when Watkins didn't bring the ball up the court, making well-timed threes and driving to the rim. Kaitlin Davis is one of the most versatile players in the league, and as an elite screen setter and collective playmaker, her impact translates into the box score. At 6 feet tall and 2 feet tall, her ability to guard all types of players in all areas of the court is rare. Taylor Bigbee is a versatile defender and shooter who has played a big role as the first man off the bench almost every night. Clarice Akunwafo has delivered in key games when called upon, especially in USC's win over Stanford at Maples Pavilion. The Trojans' deep bench guard trio of Kayla Williams, Malia Samuels and Dominik Darius brought energy on offense and in pressing situations.

Every player has a purpose while focusing on a team philosophy built around USC's stars.

The Trojans make a living on defense. They are active and aggressive, constantly changing and tinkering with principles in order to successfully spoil the attack. Their combined block and steal rates are 26.3%, the 12th highest in the country, according to CBB Analytics.

Their positioning is strong, their communication is consistent, and their activity is constant.

Starting center Raya Marshall is essential to that defense, and her presence will be essential for the Trojans as well. Although her box score numbers are small this season, she has made great strides across the board. Her ability as a rim protector was unquestionable last season, but she has become a more tactical defender and has improved her positioning and refinement, rather than dropping back and denying every shot. I learned to use my strength to work. She is imposing in the passing lanes, has proven to be a tough hedge on ball screens, and can hold down switches against smaller players.

While Marshall excels in all aspects of defense, he has also become increasingly effective in a more condensed offensive role. The Trojans haven't been able to appreciate her play enough.

Is there less margin for error for a team that relies so heavily on its star players? That's true, but as the Trojans have weathered a tough schedule with wins over two other projected No. 1 seeds in between, it's their “it” factor and courage that makes the difference. Next up is the Trojans, who also proved they have a chance to earn the No. 1 seed for the first time on Bracket Watch.

Multiple bid conference

Why is Stanford still the No. 1 seed?

Despite a hard loss at home to Arizona (more on that later), Stanford still held the No. 1 seed, dropping from second to fourth overall. What keeps the Cardinals in that upper echelon?

Stanford's track record is backed by numerous wins, with Indiana, Duke and Florida State standing out in the non-conference competition. He is one of only four teams in Division I to win Quad 1 at least 10 times, highlighting what a great team they are. Although the selection committee did not use quads, he did so because 10 of the 16 teams that advanced to the second weekend of the tournament had at least 10 wins in those games, including each team in the Final Four. It becomes an important benchmark.

The committee could give the Cardinal some leeway for the loss, especially considering the fact that the Pac-12 has been the strongest conference in the country all season and the added factor of Cameron Brink's absence. .

Nothing is guaranteed, but a win against Oregon State this weekend would go a long way toward keeping both Pac-12 teams' chances of clinching the top seed.

Is Oklahoma peaking at the right time?

The Sooners finished 6-5 in non-conference play and experienced a roller coaster of ups and downs, including a win at Ole Miss to start the year, but a loss to Southern in Norman just days before Christmas.

The Oklahoma State team we're looking at today is much different than the one we saw before going 14-2 and leading the Big 12. The Sooners' win at Texas was one of their best at Kansas State and is part of a 12-1 run since losing to Kansas State on Jan. 10.

Point guard Nevaeh Totto chopped up every manner and defensive scheme, averaged 5.7 assists per game in that stretch, and touched the paint at will. She transforms the defense, opens up the Sooners' secondary offense and flow game, and has been integral to leading the nation in assist percentage (72.8 percent of all basket assists) over the past 10 games.

Leading scorer Skyler Vann has scored 20 or more points six times with incredible efficiency, averaging nearly 18 points per game. Peyton Verhulst puts up about 14 points, six boards, and five assists per game, and he also shoots a lot, shooting 38 percent from deep. Freshman Sahara Williams just had arguably her best game of the season, scoring a career-high 20 points in the Bedlam rivalry against Oklahoma State.

The Sooners played fast, made smart offensive decisions, rebounded at a high level, and improved greatly defensively throughout the season. Oklahoma moved up to the No. 5 seed in this week's Bracket Watch, but it's a far cry from where it was in December. The Sooners, who host Texas on Wednesday, have a big chance to make March possible.

Can Ole Miss move up the seed list?

Ole Miss has quietly improved in recent weeks, coming out of the bubble and onto the field with solid wins in the mid-conference and ranked third in the SEC standings behind South Carolina and LSU. The Rebels have an 8-2 record, including a victory that avenged an earlier loss to rival Mississippi State.

Ole Miss' defense has long been its backbone, and this season is no exception, but finding its offensive form is key to moving up the seeding list. Losing transfer point guard KK Deans to a season-ending injury was a huge blow, and his offensive execution quickly regressed. After going through a tough SEC schedule, Ole Miss has found something with its by-committee point guard approach.

Madison Scott has been a standout as a point forward, averaging over three assists over the last 10 games. Kennedy Todd-Williams has returned to form and displayed playmaking ability at an even higher level, leading Ole Miss in assists per game while maintaining a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. , scored efficiently.

Marquesha Davis is one of the most improved players in the SEC. Davis is an incredibly talented slasher. She carries an even bigger scoring load in the SEC, leading the Rebels in scoring (14.2 points) with her physical and acrobatic drives to the rim.

Ole Miss is adept at getting to the line, securing its own mistakes and winning possession battles with its length and tenacity.

They added to their SEC efforts with big wins over Arizona and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. A strong showing in the conference tournament could go a long way in improving the Rebels' standing and breaking out of the eighth or ninth place line, but a regular season win could lock them into an at-large bid. It will get closer.

Toughest decision of the week…

After a tumultuous week of games, it was difficult to make multiple decisions. The ACC, which does not have a No. 2 seed, ranks near the top as the most difficult team among the other seeds.

Virginia Tech has steadily moved up the rankings while continuing to win and performing well. North Carolina did the opposite. The tricky part is that Iowa and LSU had direct wins over Virginia Tech in non-conference play. That's not all, how close I see this trio to be, but given the combined history of all three teams and how close they are, I'd put Virginia Tech ahead of either. was difficult. If Tech continues to win, it has a solid chance of overtaking them, and there is plenty of room for the higher seeds to falter. The Hokies are the hottest team of them all, but again, this is about the entire season and the strong overall resume building that coach Kenny Brooks' team continues to do week in and week out in ACC play.

The Atlantic-10 is primarily the best of the mid-sized conferences as multiple programs posted historic seasons. However, the late defeat of the top teams will greatly hinder the A-10's chances of fielding a large team in addition to the automatic qualification.

St. Joseph's finished tied for first in the conference with 25 wins and three losses, but was relegated to second place due to Richmond's dominance in head-to-head competition. The Hawks' loss to VCU took away the biggest strength on their resume: their lack of a loss. Villanova's nonconference win over another bubble team is significant, as are wins over American Athletics' best two, Temple and UAB. But missing out on a power conference win will be tough considering St. Joseph's relatively poor schedule.

The Hawks still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but they'll need some luck.

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(Photo of Mackenzie Forbes (left) and Raya Marshall: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)