This article is part of the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
PSG lost 1-0 on aggregate and are heavy favorites to beat Dortmund at home. Their implied win probability is just over 65% and their implied goals total is north of 2.
15:00: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Borussia Dortmund
For detailed statistics and odds,
DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Cheat Sheet
PSG team preview
PSG are expected to have almost the same starting lineup as in the first leg, with Berardo starting in place of the injured Lucas Hernández.
player | DK position | flex salary | Note |
Gianluigi Donnarumma | GK | $7,000 | Donnarumma's ability to make a save in this match will depend on PSG's early goal to push Dortmund into the match. |
nuno mendes | D | $5,000 | Mendes is starting to get priced out where he should be. He scored primarily based on defensive statistics in come-from-behind games. |
Lucas Berardo | D | $4,000 | Both of PSG's center backs look like great options as salary relief, especially in a 1-0 PSG lineup. |
marquinhos | D | $3,600 | |
Achraf Hakimi | D | $6,200 | Somehow, Hakimi's price has dropped, but the match conditions have improved for him. He scored his 10 floor points in the reverse game and posted the top overall play. |
vicinha | M | $7,800 | Vicinha prices remain unchanged from last week. He got some great positions in the come-from-behind game. He's a good option for GPP if you can afford it. |
Fabian Ruiz | M | $5,400 | |
Warren Zaire-Emery | M | $4,600 | |
bradley barcola | F | $7,600 | Barcola is a talented young player, but with PSG likely to have a number of attackers on the bench, he could once again play around 65 minutes. |
Ousmane Dembele | man/woman | $12,000 | Dembele received a slight price increase. He played 90 minutes in the come-from-behind game and won several corner kicks. I want to play with him, but it takes a goal or a lot of set pieces to pay for this. |
Kylian Mbappe | F | $12,800 | Mbappé is as expensive as it can be. His shot-based floor and goal-scoring odds in this game script keep him among the top overall players. |
PSG had a full week of rest and did not play any games over the weekend. Mbappe and Dembele are the top options despite their high prices. I think this match environment is something to behold, especially if Dortmund defend effectively for long stretches of the game. Fortunately, derivative works like hakimi are still affordable.
With this line-up, Dembele should take most of the set-pieces, but substitutes Kangin Lee and Marco Asensio could take corner kicks or free kicks if they come on late in the game.
Borussia Dortmund team preview
Dortmund's implied win probability is only 14.5% and their implied goal total is just over 1. Despite winning 1-0 at home last week, they conceded an expected goal of 1.7 to PSG, suggesting they were somewhat lucky to keep a clean sheet. (I was hit many times).
Dortmund opted to fight back at home, with PSG enjoying 57% possession. Dortmund will likely mainly aim to defend Paris away, and the number of possessions could be even more lopsided.
player | DK position | flex salary | Note |
Gregor Korbel | GK | $4,200 | PSG need to score, so Korbel has played well in all formats and has the advantage of making saves. As usual with goalkeepers, he could end up being a negative. |
Ian Masen | D | $4,800 | He took a free kick in the come-from-behind game, but I'm not interested in Maassen in this game. |
Nico Schlotterbeck | D | $3,000 | Schlotterbeck may be needed to get both Mbappe and Dembele, but don't expect him to provide more assists like he did in the last game. |
Mats Hummels | D | $3,800 | |
julian ryerson | D | $4,400 | |
Marcel Sabitzer | M | $5,800 | Due to the game script, I like to play Hakimi and Lewis in cash games, but Sabitzer is not prohibitively expensive. |
Emre Jan | M | $3,400 | |
Karim Adeyemi | man/woman | $5,600 | Adeyemi is a significant discount from last week, when he played 83 minutes. He was very influential defensively and had speed. |
julian brandt | M | $8,600 | Brandt earned corner kicks on both sides of the pitch in the come-from-behind game. However, don't expect Dortmund to get too many corners in this matchup. |
jadon sancho | man/woman | $6,400 | Sancho had 8.1 floor points last week and, like many of Dortmund's regular players, had the weekend off, but failed to win a set piece in the first leg. |
Niklas Furkruk | F | $8,400 | He is worth signing up as a penalty taker, but is expensive given Dortmund's implied goal total. |
Dortmund defeated Augsburg 5-1 over the weekend with the entire squad rotated. Their regular starters are effectively rested, as are PSG's players. Brandt was primarily responsible for converting set pieces in the come-from-behind game, but seems too expensive in a game where Dortmund are not expected to have possession.
cash game strategy
Cash games are tricky and easy at the same time. They're simple in the sense that I think captain Mbappé or Dembele would be the best fit, and I think Hakimi is cheap and should be one of the most popular flex plays. I don't have much salary left in other flex spots, so I end up spending it there.
The difficult thing is that we don't know who is the better captain, Mbappe or Dembele. At first I was leaning towards Mbappé. He has a strong shot-based floor and is likely to score at any time, and I think he has a good chance of surpassing Dembele if Mbappe scores. Dembélé, on the other hand, played 90 minutes in a come-from-behind game and has enough ceiling to combine with set-pieces himself. The additional salary would allow for interesting flex combinations not available to Mbappe as captain.
I also don't know which flex player combination I like best. If you can afford Mendes, I think he's a good option considering his price. He hasn't shown much offensive chops since coming back from injury, but I think he still has the ability to contribute to a good game script. Marquinhos is PSG's cheapest centre-back and available.
Schlotterbeck and Cann are playable based on salary alone, but I don't think either has a ceiling. In a matchup like this, you really want to find the extra $800 needed to face Korbel. He should see a lot of save opportunities, and players priced under $5,000 seem most likely to score eight or more fantasy points.
tournament strategy
Mbappe and Dembele aren't cheap, but we're also not too keen on fading them out in the GPP. Anything is possible in a tournament, but PSG plays great in almost every game script. For me, tournament strategy revolves around the most effective way to get these two guys in the lineup while still utilizing the roster in some way in the tournament.
I think Hakimi is the top option, but I also think he's quite popular, so you could consider building your lineup with a replacement PSG attacker. On the other hand, I think Hakimi is a great captain's choice. He has the ability to contribute goals and assists and has a solid floor. His price allows him to play in various combinations of PSG and Dortmund, which would be impossible to play with the selection of expensive captains.
Draft lineup (GPP only)
Hakimi CPT – Dembele – Mbappe: This is a strong lineup composition and my personal favorite start for GPP. I think there will be some popularity, but the rest of the lineup has plenty of room to play unique combinations of players. This start works in all kinds of game scripts, from his 1-0 result for PSG to matches where Brandt or Furkrug scored goals.
Dembele CPT – Mbappe – Vicinha: This start will allow PSG's attackers to play with lower-tier combinations. Due to the high and similar prices of Dembele and Mbappe, I think Mbappé will be slightly more popular to be chosen as captain in the tournament. Dembele certainly has the potential to catch up with Mbappe and score big goals himself. Options like Barcola and Vicinha are unlikely to be signed up by many members.
Kobel CPT – Mbappe – Dembele: I don't think Dortmund are likely to keep a clean sheet, and I don't think it needs to happen for Korbel to score big. In this type of lineup, you could even play multiple PSG outfielders with the idea that they all get assisted shots or shots on target that Korbel saves. As long as one player doesn't give PSG too many points, this build-up has a chance.
The author of this article may participate in daily fantasy contests including, but not limited to, the games recommended or advised in this article. In the process of playing these games using your personal account, you may use players in lineups and other strategies that differ from the recommendations we have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect his RotoWire views. Jack Burkart participates in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: NewYorkValues, FanDuel: NewYorkValues, and Yahoo: NewYorkValues.