Part of being successful in fantasy drafts is knowing which players are on track to have the best season of their careers and which players are likely to take a step back on the report card, and this is especially important when it comes to running backs.
The reason is simple: the hotbeds at the position have become extinct, so missing out on a high-end runner with your precious draft capital can make life difficult. Fantasy fans who drafted players like Josh Jacobs and Alexander Mattison in 2023 know all too well the consequences of those decisions.
With that in mind, here is a list of five notable running backs who may have a hard time becoming regulars.
1. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Williams burst onto the scene in the 2023 season with a breakout performance, scoring 15 touchdowns in just 12 games and ranking 7th in PPR points. So why is this season on the brink of being a “failure”? Because his touch-to-touchdown ratio is hard to replicate… he scored once for every 14.1 touches. That's better than Christian McCaffrey! Williams is not the most durable running back in the league, missing five games last year. He also has foot issues that keep him out of OTAs. The Rams also drafted Blake Collum, which makes Williams even more risky.
2. Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Jones finished last season ranked 37th among running backs in scoring. So why is he a bust candidate? Well, he was a star late in the season. He rushed for over 100 yards in each of his final five games, including the playoffs. Only Breece Hall scored more points among running backs during that span. Jones will be a starter in many leagues, but I would temper expectations. Keep in mind he missed six games with an injury and is in his age-29 season. To me, Jones is just a low-risk/low-reward fantasy starter in the draft at No. 2.
3. Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Pollard was projected to be a top 15 overall pick in 2023 fantasy drafts, but he didn't live up to expectations. Most of his stats have declined from last season, with his yards per attempt average dropping to 4 (after over 5 the past two years). Now at Tennessee, Pollard may find himself on the same team as Tyjay Spears and playing behind a less effective offensive line than he was used to in Dallas. At best, I would treat Pollard as a flex starter.
4. Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Mostert was one of last year's fantasy MVPs, coming out of nowhere to score 21 touchdowns, more than he had scored in each of the previous eight years. CombinedSo, in addition to the inevitable drop in touchdowns, Mostert will be entering his age-32 season after recording a career-high in touches in 2023 (446 touches since turning 30). Miami also drafted Jalen Wright, which could take a hit to Mostert's touches.
5. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams has been considered a sleeper or breakout candidate each of his first three seasons in the NFL, but it never really came to fruition. He struggled to separate from Melvin Gordon early in his career, then a serious knee injury halted his rise to stardom. He averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per attempt last season, losing touches to Samajae Perine and Jahlil McLaughlin. The Broncos also drafted Audric Estime, which could mean Williams ends up going to committee. At this point, it's hard to see him as anything more than shaky play.
