Trends from the 2023 season are starting to emerge in the 2024 best-ball draft. From high-risk committee backs to rookie tight ends, early draftees are taking a chance on established players like Puka Nacua, Nico Collins and Jahmil Gibbs. Let's talk a little bit about which players are currently overrated.
Most overrated player
Devon Akan (RB – MIA)
Devon Ashern is being drafted as a top-10 running back with the best ball, and it's easy to see why. Ashan is an explosive athlete with an unparalleled ceiling in his powerful offense. Asciane finished as the 24th overall running back in PPR, but there's no denying that he has the ability to finish as a top-three back if he plays a full, healthy season.
good news: Even excluding the first three games of the season, which included an insane 200-yard, four-touchdown performance on just one carry, Ashan averaged an impressive 15.3 fantasy points per game in PPR. .
bad news:During the same period, Raheem Mostert also averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game and is likely to remain with the team in 2024.
Ashan's average draft position (ADP) is far too rich for a committee that brought him back due to consistency concerns. Like Gibbs, Akan will remain in the backfield in 2024. However, unlike Gibbs, Akan has not shown consistency or the ability to remain a regular centerpiece of the offense. As players like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs find a home and players like Rashard White maintain their roles, Akan's value will decrease relative to his ADP.
Brock Bowers (TE – TBD)
The rookie tight end craze has carried over, with Brock Bowers currently being drafted as a top-10 best-balling tight end. 2023 rookies Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid have had a huge impact on the perception of rookie tight ends. Laporta finished as PPR overall TE1. Kincaid finished as TE11, but performed well in Dawson Knox's absence. Rookie tight ends are no longer taboo. In the right spot, Bowers could make an immediate impact. There is an inherent risk in not knowing where Bowers will land in the best ball contest before the NFL Draft.
good news: Bowers is an elite prospect and has all the traits of a tight end with true top-five potential even as a rookie.
bad news: Bowers' ADP is significantly higher than LaPorta's or Kincaid's ADP in 2023.
I generally have no problem taking pre-draft risks on players whose landing spots could depend on them. However, without the ADP discount, there isn't much benefit to drafting Bowers. Given the strength and consistency of the tight ends drafted before him, Bowers is likely targeted for the ceiling. This is a risky move for a rookie tight end.
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
At first glance, Kenneth Walker's ADP appears to be very reasonable. He is a fourth-round pick by the Underdogs and could serve as the team's RB1 to take receivers up to the first three rounds. However, there are obvious issues with Walker's ADP. His current value will likely go down once the location of free agents and running backs eligible for cuts becomes clearer.
good news: Walker withstood incoming second-round pick Zach Charbonnet. Walker's snap count and receiving work were less than ideal, but he still held the lead.
bad news: The Seattle Seahawks have a new coaching regime, Charbonnet will continue to siphon off receiving duties, and Walker will be drafted at ceiling.
Considering Walker is averaging just 13.3 fantasy points per game in PPR and there's no real improvement in his situation on the horizon, I'd expect a higher discount. He will continue to take the majority of snaps out of the backfield, but not the overwhelming majority, and his role lacks upside. He still relies on touchdowns. In games where he doesn't score, single-digit fantasy points will be the norm. His floor is low. His ceiling is covered. There are definitely at least five players with higher ADP caps than Walker after free agency. Walker could have value in the coming months, but he's overvalued right now.
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