Oklahoma State's path to a Big 12 title next season won't be easy.
The final weeks of the 2023 season were largely spent figuring out Big 12 Championship tiebreakers and matchup scenarios. OSU, which defeated Oklahoma in Bedlam, suffered a crushing loss to UCF, resulting in more confusion than expected in the final.
The Cowboys, who had been playing well in the final week of the season, went into the game against BYU knowing they had to win to stay in the game. After trailing by 18 points at halftime, the Cowboys rallied to secure double overtime. The win kept OU out of the Big 12 Championship.
In Arlington, OSU lost to Texas, 49-21. With the University of Texas and OU competing in the SEC next season, many see OSU as the next major team at the top of the conference.
But a 16-team conference with no divisions could cause confusion. The days when the round robin made things easier are long gone, as nine conference games and the two best conference records determine the conference title game.
There were 10 teams in the Big 12 in 12 seasons from 2011 to 2022, but the tiebreaker for the conference title could always be determined by a simple head-to-head matchup. After all, that was the case last season, and it will continue to be even more difficult to find head-to-head tiebreakers in expansion conferences.
For example, OSU won't play Kansas or Arizona next season, and those teams won't play each other. It's also possible that these teams go undefeated throughout the regular season, in which case a 12-0 team could miss out on the conference championship.
Given that the first three steps of multiple teams in the Big 12 revolve around winning percentage or record, if there were three undefeated teams, they would all be null and void. In that case, the strength of the conference schedule would determine the participants in the championship game.
This is an extreme example, but it illustrates the tie-breaking problems that can arise in a 16-team conference. But next season's College Football Playoff will be expanded to 12 teams, so the tiebreaker issue likely won't have much of an impact on the national championship.
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