Winnipeg Jets: Mid-Summer Edition – Arctic Ice Hockey

I had been hoping that Kevin Cheveldayoff would give me a reason to write another article on Arctic Ice Hockey, but not much has been happening with the WInnipeg Jets as the calendar prepares to flip to the month of August.

Chevy did check one item off of his summer checklist by agreeing with late 2nd round draft pick Simon Lundmark on a new one year contract (two-way $775k deal). The 23 yr old Swede has been very consistent in his three seasons wearing a Manitoba Moose jersey, providing the team with solid play in his own end while contributing offensively once every 4 games on average. His lack of point production in the AHL will probably hinder Lundmark’s chances of becoming a top 4 National Hockey League defenseman in the future, but if he continues along the path of fellow right hand defenseman Dylan DeMelo it is not out of the realm of possibility (the veteran’s AHL point production was only slightly higher than Simon’s). I (and others) have made the comparison about their style of play being very similar, although there are things Lundmark still needs to improve on to make the leap to a 3rd pairing NHLer. The 2019 draft pick has the build (6’2″ 201 lbs) to play a much more physical game and that should likely be a key focus for him this season. While the exact composition of the Manitoba Moose remains to be seen, I could easily see Lundmark playing on the top pairing until rookie Elias Salomonsson shows he is ready for those key minutes.

Now that Chevy came to an agreement with Kurt Overhardt on Lundmark’s contract, he will turn his focus to another agent. There will certainly be many conversations with Cameron Stewart, as he looks to lock up Winnipeg’s sole remaining RFA, Cole Perfetti. The 22 yr old was a bit polarizing for fans last season, with some of them questioning the 10th overall draft pick’s potential ceiling and others feeling he was treated unfairly by the coaching staff. Overall, his point production in 2023-24 was only slightly below his rookie season’s pace (48.24 to 43.89 pts over a full 82 season), but he was far from the only player to face a bit of a hiccup in their sophomore campaign. A recent example includes the 2nd overall selection of the 2021 Entry Draft (Seattle’s Matthew Beniers), who went from an impressive 57 pts in 80 games to 37 pts in 77 matches.

The young Canadian forward had an up and down season in 2023-24, no doubt. In the first two months of the year, Perfetti was never held scoreless for longer than 1 game, but the month of December saw adversity hit for the first time. His point production dropped to below a point every 2 games for the first time of the season and he struggled through a 6 game point-less streak. Fetti bounced back in January production-wise but still had 2 & 4 game droughts before the bottom fell out in the year’s shortest month. Held without a point in 11 games in February (part of a 15 game drought), the youngster found himself playing in the bottom six. March saw Cole see some press-box time after Tyler Toffoli was acquired after the deadline, although he was able to get back on the scoresheet a couple times in the 8 contests he was dressed for. The forward finished on a high note however, getting his name all over the scoresheets in his final 5 games (including his 2nd 3 pt game of the season). Check out a breakdown of Perfetti’s season by month below:

Looking at it another way, the graphic below illustrates just how Fetti’s rollercoaster season unfolded. It also supports what a recent article by Garret Hohl outlined about points production in the NHL….it matters where you play. He talked about Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers being one of the league’s best in the points per 60 minutes category, yet always is out-scored by top line players like Mark Scheifele or Kyle Connor. It pointed out that Fly would have to score at a Connor McDavid-like pace with his ice-time to come close to leading the Jets in points. Hohl’s work certainly supports the need for the coaching staff to give Ehlers more ice-time in the upcoming season. If you are interested in reading more, check out The Five Hohl at the link below. You can sign up for a free subscription to get some of his articles sent to your e-mail or you can sign up for the pay subscription and get more frequent articles. The site is worth a visit, with lots of information about the Winnipeg Jets coming from an author who was a founding member of the original version of Arctic Ice Hockey.

https://thefivehohl.substack.com

When Perfetti was getting routine ice-time with Ehlers & Vladislav Namestnikov on the Jets’ “2nd” line, he was producing at a solid rate for the most part.

So if I was Winnipeg’s GM, I would be pushing to lock young Cole up long-term coming off a down season to save the franchise some money in the future. Personally I believe the top 10 draft pick will become an impact NHLer (60 to 80 pt seasons), so it would be a gamble worth taking in my mind. Of course, the agent may be more interested in a short bridge deal at a lower dollar amount before signing a more lucrative long-term contract in a couple seasons.

At this point in time, PuckPedia has the Winnipeg Jets with $5,801,309 in cap-space but that is really not a true reflection of the situation. I am still unsure whether the team will carry 14 forwards or 8 defensemen in the upcoming season, but I don’t think it will change the numbers since players like Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, and Dylan Coghlan all make the same amount in the NHL. So given that and assuming both Brad Lambert & Ville Heinola make the Jets this year, Cheveldayoff has $6.49M to get his last RFA under contract. That gives Winnipeg the flexibility to go short or long with Perfetti’s next deal, though I do think that the GM would like to keep a couple million in cap space available for any potential in-season moves so I am expecting a bridge in the $3.25-3.75M range announced at some point.

Typically not a whole lot happens during the months of August & September. I looked back at the past few seasons to see how many free agent signing or trades occurred over the final 2 months of the off-season and here is what I discovered:

While the 2020-21 campaign was impacted by a very late Stanley Cup determination shortening the off-season, the un-impacted seasons didn’t provide a whole lot more action as NHL franchises locked up their remaining RFAs, signed some more UFAs to challenge for a spot in training camps, etc. There has always been a little trade action in the dog days of summer, including instances of teams moving bigger value contracts (i.e. Sean Monahan to MTL from CGY and Erik Karlsson from SJ to PIT) or prospects getting a shot with new teams (i.e. Nils Lundkvist to DAL from NYR). So while the likelihood of something major occurring remains slim, news has broken that Patrik Laine is no longer in the NHLPA’s Assistance Program, greatly increasing the probability that he will be moved before the season kicks off. New Columbus GM Don Waddell has indicated that they will try their best to meet the Finnish sniper’s trade demands, but the Jackets would also move forward with Laine on the squad next season if the offers didn’t provide enough value to warrant the transaction.

Before I sign off, thought I would pass on some recently learned knowledge about the American Hockey League. While I always knew that the minor league was considered a developmental organization, I was surprised to find that they have rules to enforce that agenda. There is much more to it than this, but all the many rules basically work out to AHL franchises being limited to veteran players taking up only 33% of the 18 skater positions during any given game (goaltenders not included). According to the rules, players with more than 260 games in the NHL, AHL, & in professional oversea leagues are considered veteran players and they can fill only 6 of the 18 skater spots. There are some caveats though, with players who have amassed more than 500 professional games being exempt, as are players younger than 25 (as of July 1st) and games played overseas while still being Junior-eligible not counted in the totals.

All of this could possibly offer an explanation to why veteran players like Jeffrey Viel and Cole Maier weren’t re-signed by either the Winnipeg Jets or the Manitoba Moose. At least the franchise was able to replace Viel’s toughness with recent AHL signee 29 yr old Tyson Emprey to help protect the kids. To illustrate how these development rules may impact the Moose, let’s check out the list below outlining the “experience” of the pool of players Manitoba may have available to fill out its roster.

As you can see, the Jets’ minor league team will likely have 7 skaters labelled as “veterans” this season and that means that at least one of those players will be in the press-box each game. Moose head coach Mark Morrison at least has a good mix with 4 forwards and 3 defensemen to rotate into the lineup throughout the season, so being compliant shouldn’t be a big deal.

Veteran defenders like Ashton Sautner, Hayden Fleury, & Dylan Coghlan will provide the leadership required to allow younger d-men the chance to thrive, while also giving the Jets more overall depth at the position. The older forwards will mainly impact the Moose’s bottom six with Dominic Toninato and Mason Shaw adding some serious grinding energy to the organization. Axel Jonsson-Fjallby will probably get to use his speed in the top six to help out Winnipeg’s youth despite the lack of consistent scoring at the AHL level. He will most likely be joined by near-veteran Jaret Anderson-Dolan. I think the 5’11” 200 lb Anderson-Dolan should be near a point per game player, filling one of the top 6 center spots in the minors, while Shaw will provide slightly less offense but a lot more fighting. The most impactful defender mentioned above will probably be Coghlan, who I think has an outside shot at being an 8th defenseman for Winnipeg this season. The 6’2″ RHD peaked as a near point per game player in the WHL with Tri-City, while becoming a 2 pts for every 3 games played guy in the AHL with the Chicago Wolves. Besides one year in Juniors with Red Deer, Fleury has never really been one for putting up the points. The 6’3″ LHD will bring in solid defense play and a physical presence for the Moose, as well as temporarily filling the prospect gap at the left defense position (really only diminutive Dmitri Kuzmin signed to a contract with Winnipeg in the upcoming year).

Manitoba will also field a bunch of younger players throughout the lineup like Chaz Lucius, Parker Ford, Nikita Chibrikov, Elias Salomonsson, Tyrel Bauer, and Thomas Milic all penciled in for big roles in 2024-25. I am super hopeful that Lucius will find a period of prolonged health in 24-25, because he could really be a difference maker in the minors this season. Even though he hasn’t had a full off-season at 100% to get in a full training regime, the young center should reach that mark well before training camp opens up. Not to put too much pressure on the young American, but if he can remain healthy for a full 72 games I bet he will take some of the sting out of fellow Yank Rutger McGroarty’s refusal to join the Jets by lighting up the scoring sheet. Milic was just fantastic in his rookie campaign and almost single-handedly pulled Manitoba into the post-season, so it will be great to see if he can build on that as the team’s out-right #1 tender. Sparkplug forwards like Chibrikov & Ford were quite impactful in 23-24 and I expect no less from the duo in the upcoming year. Certainly not last on my radar is 2nd round draft pick Salomonsson…one of the last cuts from Winnipeg last season, he has a shot to amaze the coaching staff in training camp but most likely makes his North American debut donning a Moose jersey. The coaching staff may want to shelter him a bit on the 2nd pairing to start the year, however I completely expect him to challenge Lundmark or Coghlan for the top RD spot before the playoffs roll around.

The Manitoba Moose also signed some other young players to minor-league deals, such as wingers Mark Liwiski (22 yrs old) & Ben King (22) and left-handed defensemen Dylan Anhorn (25), Benjamin Zloty (22), & Darick Louis-Jean (23). I have heard very good things about the 6’3″ 201 lb King and his past stats in Juniors with Red Deer and in the AHL with San Diego support that he can be impactful. The power forward managed 15 goals in 61 AHL games as a rookie, just falling short of the point every 2 games pace. I’m not sure if the youngster will get top 6 minutes or not, but I would say that there are likely to be a spot or two available for him to vie for. Liwiski was less of a scorer in the WHL with Kelowna, but has racked up the penalty minutes in two ECHL seasons while chipping in offensively. The native Manitoban will provide valuable minutes at the bottom of the lineup along side players like Daniel Torgersson, Henri Nikkanen, & Danil Zhilkin.

Anhorn is a Canadian who went the NCAA route where he scored at near a point per game from the left side of the defense in his senior campaign. The 25 yr old joined Manitoba after graduation last year and saw some action, but the smooth skating 6′ defender will probably play a bigger role in 24-25. Just like Anhorn, Zloty is another 6′ LHD born in Calgary, Alberta, but he is younger at 22 yrs of age. Familiar with the city of Winnipeg, the defender put up lots of points with the Ice in the WHL before making his pro debut in the ECHL last season with Idaho (23 pts in 42 gms). Louis-Jean is another lefty that started his career in his birth province of Quebec, playing Juniors for the Gatineau Olympiques. The French defender oddly has seemed to produce more offense as a professional when compared to his time in the QMJHL, culminating in 27 pts in 59 ECHL games with the Norfolk Admirals in 2023-24. It seems that the Moose will have a crowded left-side of the defense next year, with six players already vying for time and that doesn’t even include long-time mainstay Jimmy Oligny (don’t know if he is signed by Manitoba this season after an injury-plagued 23-24).

It is fairly rare to pluck a future NHLer from the undrafted pile, but then again every Stanley Cup winner in the salary cap era has had at least one of those players on their roster. Perhaps one of the above will defy the odds.

Well, I am going to give myself a pat on the back for somehow producing a fairly long article despite the almost utter lack of moves by or rumours about the Winnipeg Jets. Hopefully the read provided a bit of information to you during this slow period in the NHL calendar…and perhaps a bit of excitement about the upcoming season?? Enjoy the sunshine!!

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