That magical time between spring practice and fall camp is when anything seems possible for college football teams, but in late May I wanted to take a peek at what success might look like for the Wisconsin Badgers in 2024.
Anyone who's been paying attention knows two things: (1) Talent-wise, Wisconsin is in a significantly better position than it was in 2023. (2) Schedule-wise, Wisconsin is in a significantly worse position than it was in 2023.
This makes it very difficult to predict how good the Badgers will be this fall. The upper and lower limits are far apart (as I have already explored recently). But the focus of today's article is different: I want to explore what it will take for 2024 to be considered a success, that is, for the program to feel on the rise.
To do that, I'll look at three categories: records, eye tests, and adoption. The first two overlap in many ways, but Method Whether the Badgers win or lose is independently important, as is who they will win or lose to, including who they will lose to.
record
This is a tough one, because Wisconsin fans typically consider anything below nine wins to be subpar.
However, with the 2024 schedule being so challenging, this stance will need to be adjusted, especially against the backdrop of a program in Year 2 of a soft rebuild, so I’ll set it at eight wins heading into a bowl game.
Winning that many games means the Badgers will win two easy non-conference games and then six more in this tough stretch: Alabama, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska and Minnesota.
The home game against Purdue is as close to a sure thing as the Badgers' toughest schedule has ever been for as long as I can remember, you know what I mean? Eight wins would be a great accomplishment on its own with Wisconsin's 2023 schedule. Might be We won four or five games.
Vision test
While the record is the most important measure, how Wisconsin looks when they win/lose also matters a lot.
There are scenarios where the Badgers look very good/much improved, winning six games and losing close games to Alabama and Oregon, and there are scenarios where the Air Raid doesn't play well but they use grit and tenacity to get through close games and win seven or eight games while getting overwhelmed by elite teams.
This is very hard to quantify, but throughout the season you will either see significant data points that indicate this is a potentially elite program on the rise, or you won't. Records and eye tests should correlate highly here, but are not foolproof. (More on this in recruiting below.)
In general, the visual test for passing includes a generally consistent level of play on both offense and defense (including evidence that the Air Raid in Madison works), a number of competitive matches against good teams (pulling out at least one or two), and consistently handling teams that should beat.
Recruitment
This presents a tricky but important Z-axis for evaluating a season: Like records and eye inspection, recruiting generally correlates with success. The best teams tend to recruit better than lesser teams. And winning makes a coach's job easier.
The NIL/transfer portal makes this even more complicated, but I'll lump this all into the broader category of recruiting. By all reports, Fickell's first class of 2024 was very strong, reversing a troubling trend for the Badgers. And the reasons it was good went beyond the rankings.
There are obvious plans to add size and speed at key positions including linebacker, defensive back and running back, with big potential at quarterback.
But building on that with a strong 2025 class will be crucial, and while it's too early to draw any conclusions, what's certain is that while the Badgers have acquired some players and their plans seem sound heading into the summer, they'll have to work hard to match or surpass the 2024 class.
Fortunately, the staff has plenty of time to do just that, and how easy or difficult it is will have a lot to do with how the 2024 season goes.
The 2025 class’s accomplishments won’t impact the 2024 season, but whether or not the 2024 season is called a success is tied to some degree to the 2025 class, which is just the way programs are built.
verdict
As you can see, there is not just one path Wisconsin must take to consider this fall season a success, but rather a complex web of different inputs and potential outcomes.
If I had to pick one, I'd say an 8-4 record with an upset or two, solid and improved play on both offense and defense and the signing of a top-25 caliber freshman would be a season that shows Fickell's plan is working.
But as mentioned above, there are scenarios where the Badgers only win six games and still show enough progress to see the needle pointing up, or they win nine games and then see a slight drop in recruiting. It's all intertwined and should make for an exciting and intriguing story.
