The UK will not be able to achieve a “just and equitable” transition by 2030 unless there is urgent collaboration across the political framework to preserve jobs and investment in the marine energy industry, a study has found.
Experts at Robert Gordon University analyzed more than 6,560 industry paths from now to 2030 and concluded that political decisions, not market forces, will influence workforce size.
Their report found that of the thousands of scenarios analyzed, less than 0.3% could be considered a “just and equitable” transition.
Professor Paul de Leeuw said Scotland would be disproportionately affected by changes to the offshore workforce and supply chains, as many offshore jobs are concentrated around Aberdeen.
He highlighted the scale of the challenge, saying that to maintain the workforce at its current level of just over 150,000 people in 2030, new offshore turbine installations will need to increase to around one per day. .
In addition, the UK needs to continue extracting the equivalent of around 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
The total installed capacity of offshore wind power will need to increase from 15GW at the end of 2023 to around 40GW.
Oil and gas production is currently expected to decline by approximately 40% by 2030.
Professor de Leeuw said: “The UK still has a unique opportunity to create a new energy future.
“Accelerating the reuse of the North Sea as a world-class multi-energy basin will ensure this sector can power this country for decades to come. Getting this right will give the UK things are very big.
“But we need action and urgency to make this happen, which means faster planning, consent and access to the grid.”
He added: “While there is consensus among all stakeholders, including governments, politicians, industry groups and economic development organizations, that there is a need to achieve a 'just and equitable' transition. A more agile and coordinated approach is needed to address future policies.” Countries can best secure their energy targets while addressing the cost of living crisis, managing energy security and meeting the net-zero agenda.
“The latest research suggests that political frameworks need to be put in place to achieve a just and just transition and agree short-term action that retains the workforce through to 2030 and delivers a long-term net-zero future and the economic benefits that come with it. This is a country that has “reinforced the need for urgent coordination across the board.” ”
Mhairi McCarran, Scotland’s Net Zero and Energy Secretary, said: “Scotland’s energy transition is an era-defining opportunity for our economy and our people. We meet our climate obligations, protect our energy security and deliver a fair and equitable energy transition for workers and the communities they support. to ensure that.”
“By working together with absolute clarity of purpose, we can unlock vast potential. In fact, Scotland is fast becoming a renewable energy powerhouse and that transition is already happening. .
“The Scottish Government is determined to play its role in maximizing these benefits and negotiating the challenges, in particular through the publication of its Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan, which will deliver an affordable and secure future energy system. The vision is to provide clean energy and economic benefits to all regions of the country. ”
The UK government has said offshore wind power is key to its energy transition plans.
A Department for Energy and Security Net Zero spokesperson said: “The UK is the first major economy to halve its emissions, investing £100bn in green industries and supporting up to 725,000 industries. “We are leading the way in transforming the energy industry.” Increase employment by 2030.
“Many of the transferable expertise gained from offshore energy such as oil and gas will be critical to the transition to net zero, and our Green Jobs Plan will support emerging and future workforces across the economy. We ensure that we have sufficient skills to deal with the power demands.”
Mike Tholen, sustainability and policy director at industry body Offshore Energies UK, said: “The UK's energy transition could bring tens of thousands of new jobs over the next few years, many of which will be “It will require human resources skills and expertise.” UK oil and gas sector.
“Our manifesto, published ahead of this year’s election, highlights research demonstrating the potential for £200bn of investment in the UK’s energy sector.”