With the NFL Draft still fresh in our minds, we thought it would be a good time to dig into it. pro football reference And see how well certain positions performed as rookies in the fantasy era. The series started with the tight end.. Now, let's get to the quarterback.
The 2024 NFL Draft ended up being a quarterback-dominated draft. Six people were selected in the first round, so we will continue to be connected.
Caleb Williams. Jayden Daniels. Drake May. Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy. Bo Nix.
The fantasy community expects big things from Williams and Daniels soon. Williams currently holds his QB14 rank on Yahoo ADP, just two slots behind Daniels. The other four quarterbacks are fantasy afterthoughts in early drafts, as it's unclear when any of them will be cleared to start. Of course, Penix may have to wait a season or two after Kirk Cousins. Ah, those weird Falcons.
So the immediate focus is on Williams and Daniels, and I think most fantasy players see exciting upside in both cases. Williams steps into Chicago's offensive line, which is unusually well-rounded for a team that has the No. 1 overall pick, and Daniels has the quick talent to quickly become a fantasy player.
So I wanted to take a look at what the best seasons have been for rookie quarterbacks in the modern fantasy era (2000 to present). What is possible? What does history tell us about the reasonable range of outcomes for Williams (a pass-first guy) and Daniels (an electric runner)?
There were a lot of instant fantasy hits with the quarterback taking No. 1 overall. Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield all quickly became fantasy relevant. It's a testament to how the NFL has changed, but consider that these five quarterbacks are the five highest-scoring rookie quarterbacks of all time. Peyton Manning (1998 No. 1 overall pick) is a distant No. 6.
Newton is a QB3 and was the fifth-best scorer in value-based drafting in 2011, throwing for 21 touchdowns and 4,051 yards with an shocking 14 rushing touchdowns. He's been a top-five fantasy QB for five years and was the No. 1 guy in 2015, his MVP season. Newton probably won't be a Hall of Famer, but hey, he was a comet.
Murray's QB8 rookie season was also caused by a rush job. All of his efficiency passing metrics were below league average. But he also took credit for playing a full season, rushing for 544 yards and four touchdowns. That was five years ago. Now we wonder if his career can be reinvigorated with the arrival of highly touted rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luck checked in as a QB10 in 2012, but his passing metrics were mostly below code. Volume was on his side, with 627 pass attempts, 23 touchdowns, and 4,374 passing yards. Luck appeared in four Pro Bowls and eight playoff games before shockingly retiring from the NFL just before the 2019 season.
Does anyone miss watching Winston play? I do. Maybe I'll be able to meet Winston in Cleveland this year. Most of Winston's time in Tampa Bay was a carnival, starting with his rookie year (22 touchdowns, 15 picks, 4,042 yards, QB13). His magical season was going 30-for-30 at Circus in 2019 (33 touchdowns, 33 picks, leading the league in attempts, passing yards and interceptions, finishing as QB5). That absurd season, fittingly, ended with the No. 6 pick, his seventh of the year, in an overtime loss to Atlanta. No one kept both teams in the game like peak Jameis Winston.
Baker Mayfield had to wait a few games in 2018 before Cleveland gave him a chance to relief — he led an emotional comeback in Week 3. That led to a solid QB16 season, and his 27 touchdown passes were a rookie record for a quarterback at the time.
If you expose a board to every rookie quarterback in the 2000s, there are 18 players who scored 200 fantasy points or more in their freshman season. Justin Herbert moves into second place on the list (31 touchdown passes, QB9). Robert Griffin III was a revelation in 2012 (317.5 points, 28 total touchdowns, QB5). Russell Wilson had about the same performance that same year (QB9), albeit at a lower volume. He was a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs when the Seahawks started trusting him more. Dak Prescott was QB6 in his debut season. As QB9 last year, CJ Stroud quickly turned a struggling Houston team into a playoff club.
I'm not going to go into detail about everyone in the 200 point club. You know the ups and downs of Mac Jones and Daniel Jones. Carson Wentz has given us a strange career. Josh Allen was more of an athlete than a quarterback during his rookie year. He's a star now. Back in 2006, I thought Vince Young was a star. Surely I was wrong. (Trevor Lawrence — another recent “jury absentee” player missed this rookie list by one point. Joe Burrow easily topped 200 points in 2020 barring injury.)
There are quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger and Alex Smith who were mediocre in their first year but quickly improved. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Chad Pennington, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love — they all had to wait (if Rivers had signed on time, Drew We may never know how good Brees really was.) Deshaun Watson had a great two months as a rookie, then got injured. Lamar Jackson performed well in his seventh freshman start, while Jared Goff looked lost in his seventh. Matthew Stafford had to wait until help arrived. Michael Vick started just two games.
I don't know how to categorize Jay Cutler, so he's given his own section. He started just five games as a rookie. Johnny Manziel and JaMarcus Russell probably weren't mature enough to be successful.
And then there are the failures like Joey Harrington and Josh Rosen, Tim Tebow and Christian Ponders, Mitch Trubisky and Blaine Gabbert. Jason Campbell ultimately didn't make it. Kyler Boler. Brady Quinn. JP Rothman. There are others too. We may never know who Trey Lance really is. Same goes for Sam Darnold.
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Assuming Daniels can withstand the physical rigors of running aggressively, he may be able to reach a higher starting level than Williams in 2024. So many of the quarterback rookie smashes (Newton, Griffin, Murray, Wilson) were caused by resourceful running. But Williams is also poised for immediate success, and we've seen plenty of slow-first quarterbacks light up the skies in their debut seasons. Perhaps Williams could soon take on the type of production that Herbert, Luck, and Stroud have given us. Even Winston or Mayfield's production probably wouldn't count as a win.
I am a human. He admits he has some FOMO. Of course, I play in many leagues. Some guys are 1 quarterback, some guys are super flex. I'm going to try to keep Williams and Daniels from getting shut out. A plausible upside is at work.
The draft was great, but it's just an appetizer. The proof is in the pudding. I wish the opening date was this weekend. The future is not written.
