There are 13 matches remaining in the league stage of IPL 2024 and there are around 8,200 possible combinations of match results. No one is certain they will make the playoffs yet, but one team (MI) is completely ruled out.Let's take a look at each team's potential
IPL Orange Cap | IPL Purple Cap | IPL Points TableKKR- The team currently in the lead has a 36% chance of taking the sole lead, which they could do with just one win in their remaining three games. The chances of them tying for the lead in points is a whopping 62.5%. However, they are still not confident of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining matches, they could end up in a tie for fourth place with DC or LSG depending on the results of other matches.But the chance of such a scenario occurring is only 0.2%
RR- Similar to KKR, they have a 36% chance of being the sole leader at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for first place on points. However, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to advance to the playoffs as well. If they lose all their remaining matches, they could end up in a tie for fourth place with DC or LSG depending on the results of other matches.But the chance of such a scenario occurring is only 0.4%
SRH- Wednesday's big win against LSG lifted SRH to third place in the standings and improved their chances of making it to the top four alone or jointly from 72% to nearly 94%. The best they can hope for is to earn him the No. 1 spot along with 1-3 other teams, and his chances of that are just under 5%.
CSK – Currently in third place, CSK has just over 73% chances of finishing in the top four spots alone or jointly. Similar to SRH, the best they can do is tie for top spot with 1-3 other teams. And the probability is only 4%.
DC – Currently sitting in fifth place, DC has no chance of finishing alongside or even with the top teams. Their chances of finishing in the top four alone or together are just under 50%.Their best-case scenario is a tie for second in points, with just under a 4% chance of that happening
LSG – Despite Wednesday's loss, LSG remains in sixth place. However, his chances of finishing in the top four alone or jointly dropped from 70% to just under 50%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for second place with one to three other teams.The probability of that happening is less than 4%
RCB – 7th place RCB can expect to finish 3rd or 4th or better, but even that probability is just over 8%.
PBKS- Punjab can also hope to tie for 3rd or 4th place at best, with a chance of just over 6%.
GT- The title holders sit at the bottom of the table, with a slim chance of promotion of just under 8%.
Mi – Although currently in ninth place, MI are definitely out of the playoffs. None of the 8,192 combinations of match results would place him higher than 5th in points.
in short: Bet that KKR and RR will make it to the playoffs and will be joined by 2 of CSK, SRH, LSG and DC. His first two obviously have a better chance. It would take a miracle for another player to join the mix.
How to calculate probability
With 13 games remaining, there are 8,192 possible combinations of match outcomes. We'll take a look at each of these and what it means in terms of the team's final ranking. Then calculate the percentage of results that give team “A” a chance of finishing in the top four, or first place, etc. The underlying assumption is that every match is a 50-50 match, which is not unreasonable considering how his IPL has played out this year and in other years. For example, out of 8,192 combinations, RR has taken first place alone or jointly with his 5,120 combinations. This means they have a 62.5% chance of winning the top spot alone or together.
IPL Orange Cap | IPL Purple Cap | IPL Points TableKKR- The team currently in the lead has a 36% chance of taking the sole lead, which they could do with just one win in their remaining three games. The chances of them tying for the lead in points is a whopping 62.5%. However, they are still not confident of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining matches, they could end up in a tie for fourth place with DC or LSG depending on the results of other matches.But the chance of such a scenario occurring is only 0.2%
RR- Similar to KKR, they have a 36% chance of being the sole leader at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for first place on points. However, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to advance to the playoffs as well. If they lose all their remaining matches, they could end up in a tie for fourth place with DC or LSG depending on the results of other matches.But the chance of such a scenario occurring is only 0.4%
SRH- Wednesday's big win against LSG lifted SRH to third place in the standings and improved their chances of making it to the top four alone or jointly from 72% to nearly 94%. The best they can hope for is to earn him the No. 1 spot along with 1-3 other teams, and his chances of that are just under 5%.
CSK – Currently in third place, CSK has just over 73% chances of finishing in the top four spots alone or jointly. Similar to SRH, the best they can do is tie for top spot with 1-3 other teams. And the probability is only 4%.
DC – Currently sitting in fifth place, DC has no chance of finishing alongside or even with the top teams. Their chances of finishing in the top four alone or together are just under 50%.Their best-case scenario is a tie for second in points, with just under a 4% chance of that happening
LSG – Despite Wednesday's loss, LSG remains in sixth place. However, his chances of finishing in the top four alone or jointly dropped from 70% to just under 50%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for second place with one to three other teams.The probability of that happening is less than 4%
RCB – 7th place RCB can expect to finish 3rd or 4th or better, but even that probability is just over 8%.
PBKS- Punjab can also hope to tie for 3rd or 4th place at best, with a chance of just over 6%.
GT- The title holders sit at the bottom of the table, with a slim chance of promotion of just under 8%.
Mi – Although currently in ninth place, MI are definitely out of the playoffs. None of the 8,192 combinations of match results would place him higher than 5th in points.
in short: Bet that KKR and RR will make it to the playoffs and will be joined by 2 of CSK, SRH, LSG and DC. His first two obviously have a better chance. It would take a miracle for another player to join the mix.
How to calculate probability
With 13 games remaining, there are 8,192 possible combinations of match outcomes. We'll take a look at each of these and what it means in terms of the team's final ranking. Then calculate the percentage of results that give team “A” a chance of finishing in the top four, or first place, etc. The underlying assumption is that every match is a 50-50 match, which is not unreasonable considering how his IPL has played out this year and in other years. For example, out of 8,192 combinations, RR has taken first place alone or jointly with his 5,120 combinations. This means they have a 62.5% chance of winning the top spot alone or together.