Hello everyone. As basketball winds down and the end of spring football approaches, the Group of 5 mailbags are back. A lot has changed since the end of the 2023 football season, and there's a lot to talk about. Let's get started.
Kind of an existential question: What does happiness actually look like for a G5 fan in this day and age? Fans of teams like USF, Memphis, and Boise really want to be in the P4. His mid-level G5s like UTSA and ECU hope to be like those programs. Everyone continues to lose their best players to the portal. What are the goals of the average G5 fan or program these days?
Tony A.
These are clearly unusual times, and not just for the G5.Washington just played in the national championship and lost. all — Coaches, Players, Athletic Directors — In the past, the Huskies' 2023 season would have been a foundational point for building consistent success across the country. At this point, each year is essentially its own window.
And that's probably how G5 fans should look at things now. If you're having a great year, really enjoy it. Thank you to that star quarterback and that coach. Enjoy every win without thinking about next season. And when the offseason comes, even if you continue to coach, be prepared to start all over again, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
On the other side of the standings, if you're a fan of a struggling program, know that you might really only have one more year left. Turning things around has never been easier. Look at USF. The Bulls won a total of four games in his three years and were 7-6. Texas State just had its best season in FBS history thanks to a new coach and a ton of turnover. Portals are an opportunity to fix far more holes than you would otherwise.
In this new world, you may not be able to stay awake as long, but you don't have to be down as long either. Every season is a unique opportunity.
Was there ever talk of simply holding a Group 5 play-off? The big boys certainly don't want us in the playoffs. As a JMU graduate, I have always enjoyed his FCS playoffs and felt it was a perfect and fitting way to end the season. Instead of a boring bowl in mid-December, how about a 12-team playoff of five teams in a group?
Kyle H.
Northern Illinois athletic director Sean Frazier has long been a proponent of the idea, but the idea never gained traction for several reasons. The first is that it won't be worth that much, and he doesn't want to lose the money he makes in the College Football Playoffs, which the G5 conferences average about $1.8 million per school in the G5. The second reason is that no one wants to voluntarily declare themselves to be his second class. That's what a G5-only playoff would look like at this point. Schools want to sell you the dream of earning a big CFP.Remember, this year's 12-team CFP is the first in college football history G5 teams are guaranteed a seat at the table and a chance to play for everyone. that's good!
But incoming AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti raised some eyebrows during his introduction Thursday when he talked about a “maverick postseason idea.” When asked about it, he seemed open to not only further expansion of the CFP (which isn't up to him), but also other types of postseasons. Could that mean a second postseason tournament instead of some bowl games? It's too early to say that. Pernetti won't be in the job until June, and conference agreements regarding bowl games will be an obstacle. Opt-outs and transfers have also drastically reduced the roster available for postseason games outside of the CFP, so hosting another tournament during those chaotic weeks may be a pipe dream. But these things may be up for debate now that Fox's new NIT rivalry basketball tournament is official.
After last year, do you think the CFP committee will reconsider the “easy schedule with no losses” vs. “hard schedule with one or two losses” debate for G5 teams (e.g., last year's Liberty vs. last year's SMU)? If not, should the top teams in the G5 start rethinking their conference schedules? Teams like Memphis (FSU) and Tulane (Kansas State, Oklahoma) have weak non-conference schedules this season. The school appears to be at a disadvantage compared to G5 schools. What seems best for the school in this situation (scheduling weak non-conference opponents) is bad for the game and bad for the fans…
Max F.
This is actually something that has been debated throughout the college football world for decades. I remember the poll era, the BCS era, and the 4-team CFP era. The expanded postseason has led to the biggest programs scheduling more games against each other, led by the likes of Alabama, Texas and Ohio State, because the penalties for losing have been reduced.
But at the G5 level, we're still talking about one spot. Last year, the debate was incredibly close. I didn't expect an undefeated team to be eliminated, and I wasn't surprised in the end that Liberty was nominated for the New Year's Six, since SMU had two losses instead of his one (of course , things worked out for him with undefeated Florida State missing out on his CFP appearance (making things even more confusing). He was one of two teams that beat SMU. It didn't help that TCU ended up with a losing record, either. If SMU had only lost to Oklahoma, the Mustangs might have earned an invite to the Fiesta Bowl.
Do you think the Liberty vs. SMU debate will change anything? Probably not, since most* G5 schools don't build their schedules with the playoffs in mind. They primarily think about ticket sales for home games (local rivalries are taken into account here), dividends for road games, and the chance of winning.
*That being said, Liberty's only Power 4 opponent for the foreseeable future is Virginia Tech, which Liberty will face every year from 2027 to 2030. So we'll probably see Liberty come back to this topic for years to come.
James Madison blossomed in his first two years of FBS football. Now, within months, the longtime athletic director announced his retirement this spring. The head football coach plans to bring to Indiana several more first-team talents who have contributed to this success. The longtime president announced he would be leaving JMU to attend American University. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty regarding this program. Can you put these developments into perspective for how schools will recover, both administratively and in the field, from such a rapid loss of talent?
Jeffrey S.
It's understandable that JMU fans are a little nervous, as administrative support and coordination are just as important as any other factor to sustaining success. But Dukes has been through this a few times with his football coach. They lost the Everett Wizards to Texas State, then Mike Houston to East Carolina, but kept winning. You can never guarantee success with a coach, but Bob Chesney's career fits into the same mold as Houston and Curt Cinetti. And while longtime athletic director Jeff Vaughn is stepping down, there's no reason to think the school's investment in athletics will change given the recent success the school has had. There are many reasons not to panic.
The difference this time is the movement of the players. Five years ago, coaches couldn't bring their best players to the next job. Now it's possible. At least 10 former JMU players followed Cignetti to Indiana. We've seen many coaches do this. The modern world of college football simply allows players to move from year to year.
Still, JMU lost the 2022 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Todd Centeio, but was even better in 2023. At the end of the day, finding, evaluating, and developing talent is important. JMU has been better at this than anyone else for the past decade. Now it's up to Chesney to continue that.
With the return of starters, the addition of EJ Warner at QB, and the changes in the AAC, this feels like a huge year for Rice football. Do you think they have a chance to advance to the conference championship game?
Russell K.
I feel like we've been saying for the last three or four years, “This is a big year for Rice,'' and head coach Mike Bloomgren continues to do what he can to live up to that. That includes a bowl bid at 5-7 in 2022 and a bowl trip last year at 6-6. He will be entering his seventh season. He is one of only 22 FBS coaches to have been with the school the longest. He also has a new athletic director.
Grabbing Warner from Temple through the portal was a big win. Kurt Warner's son is a truly talented QB and would be a good fit to succeed JT Daniels. Once again, a bowl game has to be the minimum goal for the Owls. But a conference championship? It's hard to see that now. With SMU gone, Tulane/UTSA will take a step back, but Memphis will once again be one of the favorites to win the conference, and USF, which took a big step forward in 2023, should be even better this year. Does Rice have a chance? of course. But through six years, we have yet to see Rice shine anywhere near the top level. If it were to happen, it would have to be this year.
I am interested in San Jose State's decision to hire Ken Niutarolo. The Spartans have long featured a more pro-style offense featuring a strong passing game dating back to the days of Steve DeBerg, but in this case they hired a coach known for running an option offense. I hired him. Niutaroro has said he won't take the same running game approach he used at Navy, but I wonder if this is a case of SJSU taking someone they consider 1) Stanford and I can convince you to attend a shadow school in California. 2) Strong leaders of young men? Or did they just do the best they could as a poorly funded program?
Anonymous
SJSU does not run a triple option offense. New offensive coordinator Craig Stutzman has a run-and-shoot talent. That's what I expect. In Niutaroro, SJSU sees a coach who won a lot of games at a school with huge challenges (Navy) who, in theory, could bring the discipline and leadership that comes with a long tenure at a military academy. I did. He is from Hawaii, knows the West Coast well, and can take advantage of the Polynesian recruiting base. History shows you can never accurately predict how a coach will perform in a new job, but it makes sense that Niutarolo would be a good fit.
even deeper
Reevaluating college football's 2018-19 coaching merry-go-round
Will we feature Oregon State and Wazoo as a five-team group this year?
Patrick T.
good question. It has not been officially decided. Basically applies only to this mailbag. I'm all for mailbags. Because they play a majority Mountain West schedule and want their fans to have a place to submit questions about their team. I usually include independent programs in his G5 rankings with an asterisk. So we might do the same for those two as well.
(Photo: Hannah Pajewski / USA Today)
