There is consensus on this year's top three wide receivers, with draft analysts saying they are all close in talent. All three players are likely to be selected in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft. For fantasy purposes, I believe Malik Nabors is closer to a WR1 than a WR3, but only time will tell how that develops. With that being said, there's a lot to like about Nabors' prospect profile and film, so let's take a look at why there's so much hype around Nabors heading into the 2024 draft.
College Production Profile
Malik Nabers was a highly anticipated recruit in the 2021 class. 24/7 Sports ranked him a four-star recruit and No. 19 overall wide receiver. Nabors committed to LSU, a school many refer to as WR-U, and has been a key piece of the passing game over the past two seasons. In his freshman season, Nabors saw enough playing time to rank fourth on the team in receiving yards.
| Year | team | reception | acceptance yard | touchdown |
| 2021 | LSU | 28 | 417 | Four |
| 2022 | LSU | 72 | 1,017 | 3 |
| 2023 | LSU | 89 | 1,569 | 14 |
He stepped up in his second year, outscoring Kyshon Boutte on his way to 1,017 yards on the season (26.98% of team total receiving yards). His performance in his second season gave him a breakout year at 19.1. This is in his 86th percentile on PlayerProfiler. In his final season at LSU, Nabors exploded with 89 receptions (31% of team receptions), 1,569 receiving yards (35.6% of team receiving yards), and 14 touchdowns. He was the top receiver in the LSU offense as the second top receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., had 68 receptions (23.8% of team receiving yards), 1,177 yards (26.7% of team receiving yards), and 17 touchdowns. It was definitely the number one option. Brian Thomas Jr. is also a potential first-round draft pick, so it's impressive that Neighbors had such a high percentage in receptions and receiving yards for the team.
NFL next generation grade
One of the many metrics I use when considering future players is NFL Next Gen performance. They have an overall grade that combines a productivity grade and an athleticism grade. While the production grade is self-explanatory, the athleticism grade pertains to whether a player participates in the NFL Combine or his team's pro day. Some players opt out of performing at the combine, so their grades will be affected by that, but if used correctly, it's a good indicator of future success.
The above list includes receivers who were drafted in the first two rounds and declared early with a production grade of 90 or higher dating back to 2014. Malik Nabors earned an NFL Next Gen Elite grade of 92 and an overall production grade of 96. The list of wide receivers from here has had solid success at the next level, with 33.3% having a top-5 season, 55.5% having a top-12 season, and 77.7% having a top-24 season. Context always matters in player situations, and we know that Jameson Williams and Sammy Watkins suffered injuries that may have had a major impact on their lack of productivity in their careers. .
Important metric thresholds
The chart above shows some other metrics related to future NFL success. This chart compares NFL wide receivers drafted in the first five rounds since 2014. PFF data, including first downs per route run and yards per route, dates back to 2018. The Reception Awareness Tier is retroactive to the Class of 2021. Malik Nabers is all green and meets all the criteria you'd expect from a rookie wide receiver. Among the 2024 class, Nabers ranks as follows:
- WR2 with first career down on every route run
- WR2 in career EPA per team pass attempt (games played)
- WR3 in career yards per route run
- WR3 in career yards per team pass attempt
- WR4 career receiving yards market share (number of games played)
While he's not at the top of the class in these major categories, he ranks second only to Marvin Harrison Jr. in most categories, which is not surprising given the level of talent in the wide receiver class. ryan heath A recently developed run metric of first downs per route has been found to be predictable. EPA stands for Expected Points Added and shows how an individual player can add value when contributing to the team's scoring.
measurable
| height | weight | 40 yard dash | vertical | 3-cone |
| 6’0” | 200 pounds | 4.35 | 42 inch | – |
Malik Nabors chose not to run at the NFL Combine, but performed at his pro day. At 6'0'' and 200 pounds, Nabers has the perfect size for the next level. I know that 40 yard dash speed generally doesn't mean much, but Neighbors' 40 time of 4.35 seconds at his pro day confirms that he's fast and explosive, which is why he You can tell by watching the play. Nabers' 42-inch vertical is within his 98th percentile and his hand size is in the 72nd percentile. Nabers checks all the boxes from a physical standpoint.
What's on the tape
Games watched: 2023 – FSU, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
1. Missed tackles and yards after the catch
One of Nabers' strengths is forcing missed tackles and gaining yards after the catch. When watching movies, we often see this skill set as they are difficult to beat on contact but elusive and explosive in the open field. Among wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds since 2018, Neighbors would rank second in career forced missed tackles.
In 2023, Nabors ranked sixth in the nation in yards after the catch (first among wide receivers with an average target depth of 10 or more). This is important because he's not just gaining yards on receptions from designed screens and short throws. Nabers also creates splash plays after the catch on intermediate and deep routes. He was incredible with the ball in his hands, able to turn curl routes into long gains by making the first man miss and then exploding up the field. He is a threat to turn routine plays into big plays and should continue to be a threat to NFL-level defenses.
2. Home run threat
We've already seen what he can do after the catch, but Nabers is also a deep threat who can take over the top of the defense. According to PFF, Nabors ranks second in the nation in receiving yards on targets of 20 or more yards and third in touchdowns (nine). While watching the film, there were several clips of Nabers making cornerbacks look lost en route to big gains and touchdowns. Below is a perfect example of Nabers' clever route execution. He forced the defensive back to bite the fake before going outside and turning the defender around, at which point it became a wrap due to Nabers' speed. The ball was a bit underthrown, but it was a deep pass and Nabors played it for a long gain.
3. Tracking and adjusting the ball
The slot fade was a common route Nabors ran, and he ran it well. We've discussed how he's a deep threat, but it's not just about burning defenders. He also showed the ability to adjust his body to track the ball and complete catches near defenders.
4. Success against both man and zone
Nabors was elite at both burning man defenders protecting him and finding soft spots in the zone for big gains. He earned his PFF grade of 90+ in man and zone games, which was evident when watching the tape. He's one of only four wide receivers in this class to record 3 or more yards per route run against both man and zone defenses as he repeatedly gets open in the middle of the field and on out routes to the sideline. (Marvin Harrison Jr., Troy Franklin, Malik Washington).
5. Winning when lined up wide
One of the discussed “weaknesses” about Nabors is that he primarily played outside the slot. According to PFF, he played in the slot 53.6% of the time in 2023, and 62.6% of his receiving yards came from the slot. Some may think that playing mainly slots is a negative, but with Nabers you don't have to worry too much about that. He showed that he could win even if he lined up outside. The clip showing his deep threat ability was very informative for his production when he lines up wide, so we'll use another clip showing him being able to get open. He wasn't a perfect catch this time, but he showed the ability to burn outside corners.
Just because you're in line for a college spot doesn't mean you can't play outside of the NFL. Former LSU Tiger Justin Jefferson is a great example. Jefferson played in this slot 98% of the time in his final college season, but has played wide 68% of the time in all four seasons in the NFL. Also, even if Nabers plays primarily in the slot at the next level in today's NFL, he could still be an elite wide receiver.
What's not on tape
1. Attack the 50/50 ball well
If I were to criticize Malik Nabaas' game, my only complaint would be that he struggled to catch 50/50 balls consistently and didn't attack balls in the air very well when covered. That's it. I believe he has the ability and skill set, but there is room for improvement to be more consistent in this area. He can box out defenders and prevent turnovers, but he doesn't often go down on the catch.
fantasy perspective
Where he lands will likely be important when projecting his fantasy prospects in his rookie season. The Cardinals and Chargers would be ideal landing spots for a wide receiver like Nabors, so it will be interesting to see how they fare in the draft. If he ends up going to a team with a proven stud quarterback, he'll be a hit right away. In a dynasty, Nabors will be an elite talent regardless of which team drafts him. Neighbors should enter the discussion as a top two pick in 1QB leagues and a top three or four pick in super flex leagues. He'll get a decent goal share wherever he goes, be a fantasy presence in his rookie season, and a top-24 season should be well within reach. The real breakout is likely to occur in the second or third year. Stud wide receivers have become some of the most valuable assets in a dynasty, and I expect Nabors to break into that category early in his career.
