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Matt Bowen, ESPN Staff Writer
With the NFL Draft approaching, let's return to focus on free agency and the moves that will impact fantasy football in the 2024 season. There have been quarterback moves this offseason, in addition to veteran running backs and wide receivers, who are now primed to produce based on scheme and team fit.
So let's get down to business. Here are my favorite fantasy offseason moves, starting with Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley.
I completely agree with Berkeley. Over six seasons in New York, Barkley averaged 98.8 scrimmage yards per game with 288 receptions and 47 total touchdowns. He is a true two-way back with explosive characteristics and home run juice. Now, let's put Barkley behind the Premier Eagles' offensive line in coordinator Kellen Moore's system and give him third-down volume.
Zone and gap run schemes. A natural cutback lane from a read concept by quarterback Jalen Hurts. So is the receiving volume, including screens and developed matchups to make the lower levels work.
Yes, Barkley needs to remain on the field as he has missed 25 professional games due to injury. And he will lose some low goal line/red zone carries to Hurts. But this is an upgraded system that suits Barkley in Philadelphia, and I expect him to produce breakout games and RB1 numbers in 2024.
Brown is an upgrade over Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and adds a more consistent vertical stretch element to Kansas City's offense. Brown had 53 explosive play receptions (of 20 yards or more) in six seasons. He can get over the top of the defense. Brown can win at the intermediate level and produce on screens, but 29.8% of his total career receptions have come after the catch, which speaks to his ability after the catch.
In Reid's offense, Brown will likely see one-on-one targeting and deep ball throwing. But let's not forget that the Chiefs' passing game has a well-thought-out plan, leaving open gaps in coverage for Mahomes to target Brown on all three levels of the field. Working with tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Laci Rice, Brown should be expected to produce WR3 numbers in this offense, and he has big playing upside.
Cousins will continue to be a borderline QB1 for 24 years, so don't expect a huge increase in production with the Falcons. But the addition of Cousins, who can play as a ball distributor in Atlanta's system, improves the fantasy profile of tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake Rondon and running back Bijan Robinson.
Despite Pitts' high-end attributes at the position, he averaged just 8.1 PPG in '23 and London checked in at 10.1. Robinson caught 58 passes. However, I believe he will be deployed more as a matchup target for Cousins under offensive coordinator Zach Robinson, creating open field opportunities.
Remember, Cousins can time and position the ball very quickly out of the pocket. And he can attack the edge with boot/play action. These passing characteristics allow Cousins to unlock the potential of this Falcons passing game.
Henry averaged 14.5 PPG with Tennessee last season, but he will likely see an even more evolved offensive front and run game in Baltimore. The Ravens lead the NFL with 541 rushing attempts in 2023, and the run script will be even more multiple under coordinator Todd Monken as Henry pairs with quarterback Lamar Jackson in the backfield. I expect it to be.
Yes, you can still see downhill power here. Put Henry on the north/south route and also cater to his vision/cutback ability in zone schemes. This includes goal line carries. But I'd like to see how Monken plans on Jackson's threat as a runner. That causes more collisions with the opposing defense on the edge and opens up lanes for Henry.
Henry is 30 years old, so we know he could slow down quickly. But given how the Ravens use the run game as a fundamental aspect of their offense, Henry will likely find the volume and scoring opportunities to potentially produce low-end RB1 numbers in 2020. .
We don't cover enough productive players who re-sign with the team, so let's focus on the Bucks for now. Mayfield scored 19 or more fantasy points in three of the final five weeks of the 2023 season, including a season-high 29 points in the Week 15 win over the Packers. Mayfield, with his aggressive throwing mindset and arm talent, should be on his radar for streaming in 2024, in addition to the benefits a 2QB super flex brings to his format.
Evans played in all 17 games last season, leading the league in receiving touchdowns with 13 and averaging 16.6 fantasy ppg. He is a typical boundary-X receiver with explosive play ability at the third level, matchup characteristics/frame in the red zone, and route-running chops to separate in the middle of the field. And the playback speed is still on the tape. Evans will be a draft target for me again.
With the talent at quarterback and upgrades to Buffalo's offensive system, keep an eye on Samuel as a potential flex option. Last season with the Commanders, Samuel caught 62 passes for 613 yards, including four touchdown grabs. He has the versatility to line up on the perimeter or in the slot and the motion/movement skills to plan with manufactured touches (fly sweeps, screens, backfield touches). And I think Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady is also using Samuel as a stretch target in the middle of the field.
With receivers Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid playing here, there will be competition for target volume in Buffalo. Understood. But in an explosive, scoring offense with quarterback Josh Allen, Samuel's overall versatility this season could be maximized to create fantasy production. .
Houston's offense, led by quarterback CJ Stroud, is loaded with young talent and creative play-caller Bobby Slowik. However, this unit also averaged only 3.7 yards per carry last season, which ranked him 29th in the NFL. Mixon should be considered an upgrade here given the veteran running characteristics, goal-line vision and power, and skill he brings as a receiving target out of the backfield.
Mixon rushed for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns with Cincinnati last season and has had more than 200 carries in five of his seven seasons. He will command the lead back volume in Houston while also giving Stroud a productive option in the screen game and serving as an under outlet versus zone coverage. Mixon fits as a reliable RB2 in fantasy next season with the ability to produce RB1 numbers depending on the matchup.
A change in the structure of the offense, which is expected to be more pass-heavy under new coach Brian Callahan, will put Ridley in a position to put up WR2 numbers in 2024. Opposite DeAndre Hopkins, expect Ridley to be deployed as a multi-level target, using his vertical ball-tracking ability and sudden movement characteristics to separate in in-breakers and isolation matchups. .
Last season in Jacksonville, Ridley averaged 13.5 points in fantasy PPG, but had six games with 20 or more points. Yes, we'll have to see Tennessee quarterback Will Revis take a leap in year two, but there's no question about his arm talent or throwing characteristics. The addition of a threat like Ridley could accelerate Levi's development at the position.
