Fantasy Football: Breaking down the top rookie running back sleepers in 2024 | NFL Draft

• ray davis There's a reason it's in the top five in this class. Davis' numbers, which were outstanding in key rushing grade metrics despite poor offensive line play, are made even more impressive by context.

• Audric Estim Step onto the board after Elite's 2023 season: of notre dame cathedral The product greatly increased his stock this past season based on already strong rushing metrics, including his best performance against heavy boxes since 2018.

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After checking some Outstanding analytical data from the top five running backs In this year's class, the focus shifts to potential sleepers who are ranked outside of the top five. PFF big board And he might deserve more love heading into the draft.

There hasn't been as much excitement as there has been in previous years regarding rookie running backs in this year's class, but the ambiguity between the consensus rankings could create some discussion of lower-profile names aiming for a top-five ranking in this year's class. In the same way.

Before we discuss these running backs, there are a few things to note.

• These “sleepers” will be players who rank in the 70th percentile in the college production model and outside the top five at their college positions. PFF big board Scheduled to participate in the 2024 NFL Draft.
• Overall percentile ranks are based on a model that includes a player's career rushing numbers and performance (both overall and situational), missed tackles forced, yards after contact, explosiveness, and some receiving metrics. .
• This model includes all historical outlooks for the past seven years (2018 onwards).
• Strengths are considered the production data points where a particular running back scored the highest compared to the prospect pool going back to 2019.
• Weaknesses are areas where a particular running back has scored below the 50th percentile in that particular production category compared to the prospect pool since 2019.

ray davis, kentucky

Since 2019, Davis has amassed solid research results across three separate programs in his university career: temple, Vanderbilt And finally kentucky. Davis will be an older player (24 years old) in his rookie season in the NFL, but at least he has done a great job in college, including improving on his performance in 2022 throughout his first career year. ing. season with the Wildcats.

Davis posted a 91.4 PFF rushing grade with 1,131 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. His consistency as a runner has been strong in nearly every season of his collegiate career, but has been especially outstanding as an offensive lineman since his departure. troy In each of the past three seasons, they haven't even cracked the top 95 run-blocking units in the FBS. As a result, Davis had the third-lowest percentage of rushing yards to contact in his career (30.9%) in this year's class, and the second-lowest yards to contact per attempt (1.5). That made his strong performance all the more impressive. .

Strengths of Davis' Career College Analysis:

Davis set a new career high in yards per attempt after contact (3.81). This was almost mandatory for his success in his college career since, as mentioned above, he didn't have the help of a run blocking unit. My friends were like that. Davis' yards after contact was not a strength for him in college. That's why his five-year total is below the 50th percentile of running back prospects since 2018. But it was encouraging to see him significantly improve that number in 2023.

Davis' explosive run rate (12.7%) is among the lowest in this year's class and in the prospect pool since 2018. As highlighted before, he hasn't gotten much help from run blocking units over the years. Although you often don't win with speed, this is an area where you are at least continually improving, even if you haven't gotten as many free runs as some other players.

Weaknesses of Davis' college analysis:

Audric Estim, notre dame cathedral

notre dame cathedralEstime consistently improved throughout his three-year college career, finishing in the top three in FBS overall PFF rushing grade (94.0) in 2023. Estime's 4.27 yards after contact per attempt in 2023 helped push his career rate within the 85th percentile. The same goes for running back prospects for 2018 and beyond.

What made Estime stand out among the rest of the players in this class, and among prospects from years ago, was his rushing grade against the eight-man box, and among all FBS running back prospects since 2018. Obtained the highest score (92.1 points). As a bigger back (221 pounds), his vision and ability to contest for extra yards have had a huge impact on his scoring in this category and should be considered key traits to translate to the NFL.

Strengths of Estime's Career College Analytics:

As for weaknesses, Estime doesn't stand out as a potential three-down running back at this point. The main reason for that is that he is largely underutilized in that role in college. To be fair to Estim, notre dame cathedral The team barely utilized its running backs in the passing game, with Estim leading the backfield with just 17 goals in 2023. Although he has caught all 26 of his career targets and earned an impressive receiving grade of 72.1 PFF in 2023, he presents more of a player profile. Right now, he's a better pass-blocking option than a pass-catching option on downs, but even that is an area he has to improve in order to earn that role in the NFL.

Weaknesses of Estime’s university analysis:

marshawn lloyd University of Southern California

Lloyd had an explosive performance in his three seasons in college. south carolina and University of Southern California, he was able to hit the 81st percentile mark in explosive running rate (18.3%), which was also highlighted at the combine. Lloyd has posted an impressive 4.46-second time in the 40 at 220 pounds, making him an interesting player that teams will probably want to try early in Day 3.

There are some encouraging indicators to bet on Lloyd's success at the NFL level. That includes his career 93rd percentile in missed tackle percentage per attempt (0.33). His yards per attempt after contact is also above average (62nd percentile). This speaks to his ability to build up yards on his own and overcome potential run blocking issues. Being able to do so allowed him to earn one of the better rushing grades in his college career than an eight-man box (82.2).

Strengths of Lloyd's Career College Analysis:

There are concerns that Lloyd's vision may deteriorate. University of Southern CaliforniaAnd that's one reason why his rushing performance hasn't been close to the 50th percentile of prospects since 2018. He also has fumble issues with 11 career fumbles as both a runner and a receiver, despite not being utilized as often in passing games.

As one of the most athletic running back prospects in this class, there was at least some concern that Lloyd would not earn a larger role as a receiver. Even though he ran nearly 200 routes last season, his target percentage was well below average.It was the same in his time. south carolina As well, we could talk about him still being a threat down the stretch as a route runner that could ultimately hurt his fantasy rise in the NFL.

Weaknesses of Lloyds College analysis:

Kimani Vidal, troy

Vidal, the most famous player on the list, is ranked No. 15 at his position on the PFF Big Board and is trending towards the end of the sixth round in the NFL Draft. Vidal has had back-to-back seasons of soaring grades in the 90s, but that's only in Group 5, which could do some damage to his stock as he adjusts for games. .

Vidal has put in a fair amount of work during his college career, recording more carries (780) than any other player in this year's class and unsurprisingly the most prolific FBS back in this class. Achieved. Despite his heavy workload, PFF was able to score high in terms of efficiency metrics such as his grade and number of missed tackles forced per attempt (80th percentile), which is a promising sign for Vidal. .

Strengths of Vidal's Career University Analysis:

Vidal had the second-most career explosive runs among FBS running backs in this year's class (113), but going back to his overall workload, his 14.5% in that regard To put things into perspective, his percentage ranks in the 35th percentile of running back prospects since then. The class of 2018 was also below average, and the class of 2024 was also below average.

Similarly, Vidal has amassed nearly 700 receiving yards in his college career, a top-10 mark in this class, and his yards per route run (0.85) is bottom-10 in this class.

From a production standpoint, Vidal probably has the following profile tuba hubbard or tyler allgaier Both were selected outside the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. The biggest difference in production between these three is that both Hubbard and Allgayer were more explosive in their college careers and did it in Power Five conferences. This would probably be the most ideal outcome for Vidal with these two in the NFL based on their college profile.

Weaknesses of Vidal's university analysis: