The fantasy football offseason heats up with NFL free agency. This column is designed to be a one-stop shop for quick-hitting analysis of the most impactful player movement — trades and free-agent signings.
ESPN Fantasy writers Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza and Eric Moody offer their insights into what each move means for a player’s fantasy value in 2024.
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew signs with the Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy Impact: Neutral to Positive
Landing on this fourth team in six years, Minshew inked a two-year deal worth a reported $25 million ($15 million guaranteed) with the Raiders. He recorded just over 3,300 yards and 15 TDs (plus three rushing scores) on 490 pass attempts while subbing in for Anthony Richardson last year. The vet averaged 13.75 fantasy points per game (QB21) over his 13 starts in 2023.
A fine bridge for a team in the throes of a rebuild, Minshew appears in line (right now) to compete with (and likely beat out) Aidan O’Connell for the starting gig in Vegas. While his talents aren’t exactly elite, Minshew’s experience and savvy figures to buoy both Davante Adams’ and Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy floors. It’s unlikely that Minshew will crack the top-25 fantasy producers at the position, but he could retain value as a backup in super flex leagues. –– Loza
Clay’s projections: 9 games, 306 att. 194 comp., 2151 yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs
Kirk Cousins signs with the Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Impact: Positive
The Falcons’ offense just keeps getting more interesting this offseason, as after the hiring of coach Raheem Morris, the team now signs Cousins, a very-good-albeit-unspectacular quarterback who represents a sizable upgrade upon the Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke rotation the team had in 2022-23.
Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles’ that does present some injury risk at the season’s onset, but he averaged 18.7 fantasy points in eight starts before getting hurt, sixth-best among quarterbacks who started at least that many. He’s a borderline QB1, probably best ranked 12th-13th at his position, but his arrival is plenty promising for the futures of running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 15 games, 535 att., 350 comp., 3992 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs
Russell Wilson signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral-to-positive for Wilson, Negative for Pickett
The move sets up a genuine quarterback battle, between Wilson, whose 16.1 fantasy points per start during his two seasons in Denver ranked 18th among quarterbacks (minimum 10 starts), and Kenny Pickett, whose 10.3 points ranked 41st. Wilson presumably wouldn’t have selected a team unwilling to let him start, so he’ll probably be under center in Week 1 unless he has an awful preseason. He’ll have a decent pair of receivers to throw to in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and could benefit from Arthur Smith’s run-oriented offense that should more frequently rely on play-action. Wilson still seems most likely to be a matchups quarterback, even with a standout preseason that nets him a starting job. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 15 games, 485 att., 311 comp., 3475 yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs
Running Back
Derrick Henry signs with the Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Impact: Positive
As he enters his age-30 season, Henry lands in one of the best situations for his skill set, in Todd Monken’s run-heavy Ravens offense that was the league’s only one to attempt more rushing than passing plays last year. Most critically, Henry goes from running behind the game’s weakest offensive line, per Pro Football Focus, to one of its best. The burning question at his age, however, is for how much longer can Henry maintain top-10 fantasy running back performance?
The history of running backs age 30 and older and with the 2,030 career carries that he has — not to mention that he has led the league in rushing attempts in four of the past five seasons — isn’t good, but Henry’s landing spot grants him about as strong a case to repeat his RB8 finish of 2023 as there is. Knock him down a couple ranking spots accounting for his age and injury history, but the Ravens will likely spell him often and well enough to maximize his production and keep him worth a top-12 positional pick. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 14 games; 240 carries, 1012 yards, 11 TDs; 36 targets, 28 receptions, 235 yards, 1 TD
Joe Mixon traded to the Houston Texans
Fantasy Impact: Positive
After the Cincinnati Bengals signed Zack Moss, the team traded Mixon to the Texans. Mixon lands in about the best circumstance he could’ve asked for, being a player certain to switch teams this offseason. The Texans have an up-and-coming offense but also a running game that sputtered last season, especially while Dameon Pierce was their starter. Mixon, while not the player he was four or five years ago, represents a substantial upgrade over Pierce, particularly in short-yardage situations. Mixon converted 53% of his goal-line chances the past three seasons, his 17 total touchdowns in that time second-best in the league. Pierce, meanwhile, was one of the game’s worst in 2022-23, turning 12 goal-line tries into four scores (his 33.3% success rate was second-worst among players with at least 10 attempts).
Mixon should have no problem serving again as a weekly RB2, getting the bulk of the rushing work plus all of the goal-line carries. His arrival is also plenty good news for sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud and his young group of wide receivers as well. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 14 games; 255 carries, 1065 yards, 8 TDs; 52 targets, 41 receptions, 287 yards, 3 TDs
Aaron Jones signs with the Minnesota Vikings
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
Cut by the Green Bay Packers on Monday in favor of Josh Jacobs, Jones latched on with the running back-needy Vikings less than 24 hours later. It’s a good landing spot for the 29-year-old — he’ll turn 30 in December — as the Vikings cut the ineffective Alexander Mattison two weeks earlier and had only Ty Chandler, Cam Akers and Kene Nwangwu at the position. Jones averaged 12.3 PPR fantasy points in his 11 healthy games in 2023, 26th among running backs who appeared in at least half their teams’ games, and the history of soon-to-be-30-year-olds at the position is checkered at best.
Still, Jones is a good fit for what is a pass-heavy offense in Minnesota. He has averaged 4.2 targets per game over the past five seasons, indicating that he’ll surely handle the team’s passing downs, and if the Vikings use Chandler to spell Jones in an effective manner on rushing downs, they might yet squeeze another RB2-caliber fantasy stat line out of the veteran. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 156 carries, 722 yards, 4 TDs; 59 targets, 43 receptions, 346 yards, 2 TDs
Austin Ekeler signs with Washington Commanders
Fantasy Impact: Negative
We have another running back reunion! Austin Ekeler penned a two-year deal with the Commanders. Anthony Lynn (who will work as Washington’s RBs coach in 2024) was the Chargers head coach when Ekeler entered the league in 2017. Lynn — a former RB himself — was instrumental in Austin’s ascent from UDFA to fantasy superstar.
Ekeler isn’t likely to shoulder the load alone in Washington but rather, work as a complement to Brian Robinson Jr., who should continue to thrive on early downs and in a short yardage capacity. Given that the Commanders offense is very much a work in progress, Ekeler’s rushing efficiency isn’t likely to rebound anytime soon. His pass-catching prowess should be on full display though, as he emerges as a safety valve for whichever rookie QB the team drafts in April. With Washington likely to be playing from behind, Austin should deliver low-end RB2/high-end RB3 numbers in PPR friendly formats. — Loza
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 131 carries, 525 yards, 4TDs; 54 rec., 468 yards, 2 TDs
Gus Edwards signs with Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The Gus Bus is heading west for a reunion with his former OC Greg Roman in SoCal. Edwards broke every rule about TD regression, recording 13 total scores (RB4) in 2023. He is a two-down grinder with an undeniable nose for the end zone and figures to work as the Chargers short yardage option. His efficiency will probably take a hit without Lamar Jackson beguiling defenses, but the complexion of the Chargers retooled offense should allow Edwards to retain flex fantasy value. — Loza
Clay’s projections: 15 games, 174 carries, 703 yards, 8 TDs; 17 rec., 138 yards, 1 TD
Devin Singletary signs with the New York Giants
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
After leaving Buffalo for Houston, Singletary is heading back to the northeast, this time on a three-year deal with the New York Giants. Saquon Barkley’s departure created an enormous chasm in the team’s RB room, a void that Singletary won’t fill alone. The Giants are expected to employ a committee approach in the backfield and Singletary had flashes down the second half of the 2023 season, averaging over 14 fantasy points per game from Weeks 10 through 18. That is less likely to occur with the Giants however, the team’s offense lacks both zip and leadership (particularly in comparison the Texans’ offense). Consider Singletary a reliable but middling RB3 for fantasy purposes heading into 2024. — Loza
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 202 carries, 859 yards, 5 TDs; 35 rec., 232 yards, 1 TD
Antonio Gibson signs with the New England Patriots
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
Brian Robinson Jr.’s emergence in Washington upended thoughts that Gibson might finally unlock his full potential. Gibson’s carries have steadily declined over the past few seasons, though his catches have remained stable, averaging close to three receptions per game for three straight seasons. With New England likely to move on from Ezekiel Elliott, Gibson will join Rhamondre Stevenson in the team’s backfield. Gibson’s pass-catching ability figures to be utilized in a third down or change-of-pace role, which could benefit PPR enthusiasts seeking a valuable flex option late in drafts. — Loza
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 128 carries, 539 yards, 3 TDs; 39 rec., 284 yards, 1 TD
Josh Jacobs signs with Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The Packers have switched up their backfield. Green Bay added Jacobs and, in a surprising turn of events, released Aaron Jones, who had one year left on his contract. With AJ Dillon set to test free agency, Jacobs could (at least in the present moment) retain an every-down role on his new team. Clearing 260 touches for the fifth consecutive campaign of his career, the former Raider has been a consistent fantasy producer since entering the league in 2019.
His career-best season — where he averaged over 16 fantasy points per contest — came in 2022. While Jacobs’ numbers unsurprisingly dipped last year (3.5 YPC), he still recorded top-20 FF stats on a per game basis (13.8 fantasy points per game). More of the same (or better) should be expected — assuming Green Bay drafts a rookie and employs Jacobs as a bridge — in 2024. — Loza
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 264 carries, 1008 yards, 8 TDs; 41 rec., 319 yards, 2 TDs
Saquon Barkley signs with the Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy Impact: Positive
Though injuries have been a problem for him throughout his six-year NFL career — he has missed 25 games in that time — Barkley has proven himself one of the league’s most well-rounded running backs when on the field, averaging a fifth-best-at-his-position 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game since entering the league. He gives the Eagles a much-needed rushing boost, adding a dimension to the offense that at times was lacking in 2023, particularly late in the year. As Barkley’s receiving numbers suffered as a result of the frequent injuries to Daniel Jones while in New York, he should rebound in Philadelphia working with Jalen Hurts. A return, or improvement upon, his 2022 numbers is entirely possible, if he plays a similar number of games.
Consider him an 18-carries-a-game player, rendering Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny mere change-of-pace backs. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 252 carries, 1035 yards, 9 TDs; 42 rec., 330 yards, 2 TDs
Tony Pollard signs with the Tennessee Titans
Fantasy impact: Neutral
He was one of the biggest disappointments in 2023, his first season as a full-time starter, as Pollard saw 59 more carries and 75 more touches but totaled 62 fewer yards. That he did so behind one of the game’s better offensive lines, on a team with one of the league’s best passing offenses, is especially unsettling. Pollard should have an opportunity to seize a similar amount of work, but in a less optimal environment — bad offensive line and shaky passing game — and with Tyjae Spears lurking to steal work if the 2023 struggles repeat. Fantasy managers — this columnist included — would’ve loved to see Spears get a chance instead, but this might quickly morph into a time share. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 190 carries, 809 yards, 6 TDs; 41 rec., 265 yards, 1 TD
D’Andre Swift signs with the Chicago Bears
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
He is an unusual addition for the price, considering his sluggish finish to 2023 — he averaged 9.9 PPR fantasy points in the season’s second half and had 66 total yards in the Philadelphia Eagles’ wild-card loss. Additionally, there is the presence of Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert on the roster, but Swift’s deal assures he’ll probably occupy a three-down role. It’s a downgrade in offense, with the Bears likely to draft Caleb Williams as their quarterback, making Swift a low-to-midrange RB2 for fantasy (Mike Clay projects him for 1,054 total yards, 209 fewer than last season). Johnson is now more of an afterthought, after originally appearing like he might be a decent bargain candidate entering 2024. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 14 games, 169 carries, 756 yards, 5 TDs; 40 rec., 298 yards, 2 TDs
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson traded to the Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral for Johnson, Positive for Bryce Young
Johnson registered a whopping five scores in 2023 — which was five times as many as he managed the year before — but still ranked him outside of the top 25 players at the position in terms of total TDs. An early season hamstring issue in addition to the emergence of George Pickens also negatively affected Johnson’s volume, as the 27-year-old drew a career-low 87 looks (6.7 per game, WR45). It’s worth mentioning that Kenny Pickett lobbed a mere 58 catchable balls (66.7% catchable target rate, WR70) Johnson’s way, which certainly hurt the wideout’s productivity (51-717-5). It’s unlikely that Johnson’s conversion rate will skyrocket with Bryce Young under center (59.8% CMP).
What is clear, however, is Carolina’s commitment to Young’s development. From the installation of Dave Canales as the team’s HC to the addition of Johnson, the Panthers appear all-in on their first-round pick from a year ago. As it stands, the former Steeler figures to work as the team’s No. 1 WR… but the newness of the offense caps his ceiling, making him a low-end WR2 for fantasy purposes. — Loza
Clay’s projection: 125 targets, 78 receptions, 1094 yards, 6 TDs
Darnell Mooney signs with the Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Impact: Neutral for Mooney, positive for the Falcons
The Falcons continued beefing up their offense with the signing of Mooney, who struggled to put up fantasy numbers while working with Justin Fields in Chicago but remains a solid deep threat who managed a WR23 finish in 2021. Drake London should remain the team’s top target, but Mooney should have his moments as the No. 2 receiver, perhaps leaning more boom/bust as a weekly play of the two. Consider it a signal that the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons offense should lean similarly pass-heavy to his Minnesota Vikings teams, but that’s not at all a bad thing for London, Mooney, Kyle Pitts or Bijan Robinson. The arrow is pointing upward. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 15 games; 86 targets, 59 receptions, 715 yards, 5 TDs
Gabe Davis signs with the Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy impact: Neutral-to-positive
The presumed big-play receiver replacement for Calvin Ridley, Davis’ 14.6 yard average depth of target was second-most in the league, and 27% of his receptions went for 20 yards last season. Some of Davis’ success needs be attributed to Josh Allen, whose 60 receptions and 12 touchdowns on throws at least 15 yards downfield ranked fifth and second last season, though his new quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, had a respectable 49 (11th) and 10 (eighth) in that department. While Davis’ fantasy value — that of a matchups-oriented WR4/5 — might ultimately not change in Jacksonville, there is the path to his gaining a larger role than merely the situational deep threat he was in Buffalo the past two years. There’s a hint more upside now. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 15 games, 83 targets, 47 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs
Jerry Jeudy traded to the Cleveland Browns
Fantasy impact: Neutral for Jeudy, positive for Marvin Mims Jr.
The substantial takeaway here doesn’t pertain to Jeudy at all. It’s that his departure from Denver paves the way for fantasy darling Mims to see a huge spike in targets, aligning for a prospective breakthrough. Mims might have WR3 upside, dependent upon the identity of his quarterback. Jeudy, meanwhile, should settle in as the Browns’ No. 2 receiver, a role that’ll probably bring similar depth/matchups appeal for fantasy rather than grant him a true breakout path. It’s bad news for Elijah Moore, who scored 77 PPR fantasy points in his final nine games of 2023 but will now struggle to see consistent targets. — Cockcroft
Clay’s projections: 15 games, 99 targets, 62 receptions, 923 yards, 4 TDs
Tight End
Gerald Everett signs with the Chicago Bears
Fantasy Impact: Negative
After spending the entirety of his career on the West Coast, Everett is heading to the middle of the country. The (almost) 30-year-old penned a two-year deal with the Bears. It’s a head-scratching move for Chicago, given Cole Kmet’s presence and the lack of receiving options behind DJ Moore. The signing suggests Everett will be involved in the passing game. How much, of course, remains to be seen. Everett averaged nearly five targets per contest last season, but that was without Mike Williams on the field. He also struggled with drops while additionally recording a career-low 8.1 YPR (TE36). As long as Kmet — who closed out his best statistical season as FF’s TE8 over last year — stays healthy, a rebound for Everett seems unlikely. — Loza
Noah Fant stays with Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy impact: Neutral to Positive
Seattle’s new regime seems intent on keeping Fant in town and, hopefully, unlocking his full potential. The former first-round pick signed a two-year deal reportedly worth $21 million. With Will Dissly heading to the Chargers and Colby Parkinson landing with the Rams, Fant’s target share could blossom. Additionally working in Fant’s favor is the installation of new OC Ryan Grubb, who favored a high-flying attack at the University of Washington over the past few seasons.
Coming off a career low 32-414-0 stat line, Fant appears primed for a rebound. He’s unlikely to finish inside the top-12 fantasy players at the position, but he could crack the top-15 to 20, presenting managers with streaming potential on a week-to-week basis. — Loza
