The NFL news cycle is in full swing. Free agency and trade news is coming in fast and furious. What does that mean for fantasy football in 2024? Matt Harmon breaks down the major contracts, trades, and speculation to help you sort it all out.
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Offsetting language in Wilson's contract allowed him to sign a super-cheap contract as a free agent and recoup the $39 million balance Denver owes him this season. As such, he would be the perfect addition for any team that needs a legitimate option to compete, and is likely to ultimately replace an underperforming young incumbent. The Steelers met that criteria. This is a harmless move for Pittsburgh considering the amount they are paying him, even though ideally they would like him to shoot for a higher ceiling as a quarterback.
While some of Wilson's raw 2023 stats look solid, they fail the test when you pop the hood and observe the all-too-simplistic nature of his assignment. Joe Dolan makes a nice comparison to some of the notes he parroted about Carson Wentz after his one year with the Colts.
We know Russell Wilson was “better” in 2023 than 2022, but the eye test showed something was missing…his “bouncing back” from disaster ” seemed similar to Carson Wentz’s 2021 in Indy after blowing up in Philadelphia.
The stats were objectively solid, but the play wasn't good enough.
And well… pic.twitter.com/0p6WvCb7OP
— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) March 4, 2024
That being said, I think Wilson can Provides satisfactory starting-level quarterback play. That's not a very impressive ceiling, but it's more than can be said for what the Steelers have gotten from Kenny Pickett over the past two seasons. The Steelers' new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, will likely have to make some adjustments to the offense, as Wilson has never worked well throwing past the middle of the field. But the deep play-action drop concept under center is the guardrail Wilson needs at this stage of his career.
Overall, I expect the Steelers to be a run-heavy offense with Wilson under center and trying to win by the margin. So it's not all that different from what they've wanted in recent years, but at least having Smith in place of Matt Canada's high school offense would actually give them a grown-up NFL structure. Both Najee Harris and Jalen Warren will generate a ton of rushing volume, with the latter especially benefiting from Wilson's quick triggers on checkdown passes over the past two seasons (18.6% of his throws in 2023 were a league-high). I am in a position to receive it. In the receiver room, George Pickens fits the profile of the ball-stealing straight X receiver that Wilson favored later in his career. If the Diontae Johnson trade rumors come true, Pickens would be in position to dominate Wilson's targets.
Of course, this all assumes Wilson is the starter in Week 1, never mind the fact that he's been the starter in all 17 games for Pittsburgh this season. Don't believe for a second that either is a guarantee based on the films he's put out the past two seasons.
Bears acquire D'Andre Swift in the midst of offensive makeover
I didn't expect Swift to be the first running back taken off the roster in this free agent market. The fact that this deal was reported so quickly shows that it was a serious issue. very Concrete and targeted moves from Chicago's front office. Swift's contract is slightly better than the one Miles Sanders received from Carolina in free agency last year, both in terms of salary and guarantees (reportedly $15.3 million).
Running back was a need for the Bears, and Swift brought a dimension to their room that wasn't there before. He is an explosive runner who had some great moments within the Eagles' zone-heavy run scheme. There's also some untapped passing game ability that was overlooked by Philadelphia given the structure of the offense. Holdovers Khalil Herbert and Roshon Johnson are role players at the NFL level, but neither is a clear starter. I expect them to mix in some with Swift, who will be the frontrunner to lead the team in touches. The name of the game is to stack the roster with talented players around future No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Swift is the first move to do just that, and it's unlikely to be the last.
Sanders' 2023 story warns both about using contract terms as a major point in favor of a return to fantasy, and about the dangers of projecting the former Eagles back outside of that ecosystem. Provide a story. He'll be somewhere in the normally murky mid-round waters of fantasy drafts this season, and he's someone I don't think I'd have a strong stance on.
Jerry Jeudy gets a fresh start with the Browns
I've been far below the general consensus about Jeudy as a route runner and as a player overall for quite some time. But I like this move by Cleveland. Because Cleveland legitimately believed they needed more wide receivers. The Browns have shown a real willingness to unearth distressed wideouts and get creative in acquiring talent at premium positions in each of the past three offseasons. It's not a perfect room, but they get the trio of Jeudy, Amari Cooper, and Elijah Moore, two fifth-round picks, one sixth-round pick, and a second-to-third round pick. Earned a comeback. That's not bad considering what other teams pay for this position.
Jeudy needed a change of pace, but don't listen to anyone who says the disappointing start to his career is purely the fault of Denver's dysfunctional offense. He is very inconsistent as an individual player, not the stable separator he was expected to be when he left school. Hopefully, he can build new momentum as he rotates between the slot and flanker positions with Moore in the Browns' vertical play-action passing game.
As a general rule, I don't like investing in offenses with key quarterback questions that are likely to be subject to a target squeeze. They could end up heading to Cleveland with Jeudy and Moore competing for looks behind Cooper and David Njoku. The fact that I still have big doubts about whether Judy can consistently display that talent only lends further credence to the fade.
I haven't been willing to take the plunge on Jeudy in fantasy football the past two seasons, and I don't think his move to Cleveland will change that.
Predictable moves in the dance between a disgruntled franchise tag player and his team. Probably nothing will come of this request, but Higgins is quietly playing on the franchise tag — he and his agent have plenty of other teams willing to pay him with a long-term extension. Even though I knew this for sure, it always felt like a pipe dream.
My understanding of this situation is that the Bengals have no hope of keeping Higgins long-term, but they have a salary plan specifically designed to keep Higgins in 2024. Higgins doesn't have much power to change the situation. Those goals won't be achievable unless he plans on throwing the season away, but I'll believe it when I see it. But this is a mechanism for Higgins to put public pressure on the Bengals and send a signal to other teams to accept offers that are too good to refuse. I always thought Cincinnati would be willing to listen to that offer and move Higgins, even though ideally they'd like to get him this year.
If I had to bet on it right now, I'd say there's a 70/30 chance that Higgins will play for the Bengals this season. Despite the siren song heralding his promotion to a true No. 1 wide receiver role elsewhere, the best place for Higgins' pure production is probably Cincinnati.
First of all, there aren't many places for Higgins to match up with a better quarterback than Joe Burrow. It goes without saying that the Bengals will hang up the phone with their top conference rival within 15 seconds, but I doubt a trade for Higgins is in the plans of the Chiefs or Bills. I also think there are still open questions about whether Higgins can be a legitimate No. 1 wideout or an elite No. 2.
If you were planning some realistic landing spots, the Panthers and Titans would be at the top of your list. Then there are spots like the Jaguars, Texans, and Lions that are less likely but can't be ruled out. When predicting Higgins just for 2024, all three of his landing spots present their own strengths and weaknesses.
This situation deserves monitoring. My guess is that either a hasty trade solution will be found within the next week, or Higgins will report at some point in training camp, frustrated after losing a staring contest with a front office that has had these battles before. Dew.