We're two weeks into the season, and we're starting to learn more and more about the teams in Major League Soccer. As we work through the next few weeks, data will begin to accumulate and we will be able to make better informed guesses each week.
That being said, if the Columbus Crew had been able to protect a 1-0 lead late Saturday afternoon, they could have had a 2-1 weekend. Instead, Minnesota tied it at the death, pushing the tie-no bet stake. FC Cincinnati ended up beating the Fire 2-1, earning them their first betting win of the season.
If you stayed up late to watch the Sounders vs. Austin FC on Saturday night, you were probably wondering why the Sounders couldn't score. Why couldn't they just let the three points slip away? They outscored Austin 23-2 and his expected goals were 1.4-0.1. I sat there and was just amazed at what I saw. It was a good result for Austin, but I expected more from Seattle.
Weekend results: 1-1-1, 0.42 unit decrease
year to date: 1-4-1 3.42 units down.
Note: Odds below are subject to change
FC Cincinnati vs DC United
FC Cincinnati: Money line -120
DC United: Money line +290
draw: Money line +280
FCC defeated a high-powered Chicago Fire team 2-1 on Saturday. The Orange and Blue have conceded just one goal in two games, and that came from the penalty spot. Defensively, they do a great job of limiting the chances of the opposing team.
The Orange and Blue are coming off a hard-fought victory against Monterrey in CCC play on Thursday night. Both games will be played on TQL this week, giving them a few days of rest and no travel.
The league's top goalscorer, Christian Benteke, returns from a minor injury. May not be featured on DC United. They scored five goals in two games and rallied from a 2-0 deficit in Portland on Saturday night to leave the Rose City with a point. I bet on his opponent in week 1 when DC easily beat New England. Does DC really exist? We'll find out this weekend.
FCC is currently on a back-to-back shutout in home games, but it looks like the team will win 2-1. I'm going to go with the overplay here because the game line is too appealing to me and I think there's a chance for goals between these two teams this weekend.
choose: Total goals OVER 2.5 -148 with 1.48 units.
Austin FC v St. Louis City SC
Austin FC: Money line +120
St. Louis SC: Money line +200
draw: Money line +250
Earlier in this article, I mentioned how horrible Austin was in Seattle on Saturday night. They couldn't hold on to the ball and hunkered down at halftime trying to catch Seattle, but it never happened for them. They couldn't hold the ball long enough to attack on the break. Looking at the stats, Austin's possession percentage was 44%. To be honest, I was surprised by this number. Again, Austin only made two shots in this game. There were two, of which he only had one on the frame. There were also zero corner kicks in this match. I'm sure they deserved some credit for the result they got in Seattle, but that was terrible to watch. I'm very surprised that Austin is the slight favorite to win this matchup, even though he hasn't played very well in the opening two games.
St. Louis got the win over the weekend against a team that is off to a tough start to 2024 with a 2-0 win over NYCFC. It is also easier to do if your opponent finishes the match with only one player. He was sent off late in the game, but the Citizens were already losing 2-0. NYCFC possessed the ball more and completed more passes than St. Louis, but the game still ended in an inferior position. We didn't create many chances and only had one or two chances in front of goal. Both goals came from New York turnovers, and St. Louis did what they do best: punish on the counter.
So I'll go on Saturday. St. Louis put the rest of the league on alert in a rematch of the 2023 MLS season opener in Austin. From what I've seen over the last two weeks, I don't think either team will want the ball. I think both teams will have to sit back and defend and wait for their opponent to make a mistake, but Austin has the best chance of that at this point. It's tough to see Austin win despite having a home advantage. There is a slight chance that this match will also end in a draw. So I predict a win or a tie against St. Louis on Saturday.
choose: St. Louis City SC DOUBLE CHANCE (win or tie the match) -155 for 1.55 units.
Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union: Money line +110
Seattle Sounders: Money line +250
draw: Money line +220
When MLS analysts saw the announcement of this match, many likely thought it was a preview of the MLS Cup Final, with both teams competing after the season. However, both teams were a bit of a mess coming out of the gate. Seattle lost their first game away to LAFC 2-1, then drew a dominant 0-0 at home with Austin FC, forcing a rough first game after what should have been an easy win. This week brought even more bad news for the Sounders. The Sounders' newest DP signing, Pedro de la Vega, injured his hamstring during Saturday night's game and will be out for several months.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia opened the 2024 season with a 3-2 win over Saprissa in the CCC on the road in Costa Rica, and backed up that win with a four-game draw in all competitions. I was lucky to get a goal in Saturday's 1-1 draw with Sporting KC. This week, CCC drew 0-0 at home against Pachuca. You can give Philadelphia a bit of a pass for their slow start, as they come into this game having played three more games than Seattle.
I understand that MLS's two-conference setup means that many teams don't play each other regularly between the two conferences, but I do know that Philadelphia and Seattle haven't played each other since pre-pandemic (2019). I was surprised to know. In the past 10 meetings, Philadelphia has won four, lost three, and tied the series three times. These games are usually low scoring games as these teams combined have him scoring over 2.5 goals per game in his 3 games.
Philadelphia hasn't been able to win or lose games lately, and Seattle lacks a DP creator on the road and struggles to score. I'm going to play for UNDER, so I hope these two teams continue to struggle.
choose: Total target number UNDER 2.5 -134 for 1.34 units.
Last week we got our first MLS win of 2024. Let's hope they continue to build up and get out of this early deficit. Good luck this weekend and bring home a winner!
Disclaimer: The handicap and odds information (both sports and entertainment) posted on CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com is for entertainment purposes only. Additionally, the proprietary odds displayed on some news articles are for entertainment purposes only and are not available for betting via CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com. We are not a sportsbook and do not accept any bets. We do not endorse illegal online gambling. Please check your jurisdiction's online gambling regulations before placing a bet on any betting site advertised on CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com. CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com is not directed to individuals under the age of 21 for gambling purposes. Use of information found on CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com to violate any law or statute is prohibited. CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com is not supported by any professional, college, or university league, association, or team, or endorsed by any public gambling platform. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966. Available 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.