Shortly after Mystic Dan's victory in the Kentucky Derby 150, trainer Ken McPeek said he was unsure whether he would run the colt in the Preakness.
His comments were met with widespread skepticism, and rightly so. Last weekend, McPeak confirmed that the Derby winner would indeed play in leg two of the Triple Crown.
Two other Derby runners, Catching Freedom and Just Steel, are also scheduled to run Saturday afternoon.
Jockey Bob Baffert, who is still barred from running horses in the Derby at Churchill Downs, was scheduled to race two horses at Pimlico, including favorite Moose, but Moose contracted a fever on Wednesday morning. I took it out and got scratches. With that change, Mystic Dan took over as morning line favorite.
If you've heard this before, please stop. Just like at the Kentucky Derby, rain is forecast for Saturday. That rain did come down at Louisville, but the track would be rated “fast” in post-time well before the race. Current projections suggest that won't be the case in Baltimore, so we'll handicap them accordingly.
The Preakness was posted at 7:01 PM ET. CNBC will broadcast from 1:30pm ET until 4:30pm, switching to NBC at 4:30pm. Streaming will be available throughout the day on NBCSports.com, the NBC Sports app and Peacock.
Here's a look at the fields for the Grade 1, $2 million Preakness Stakes, sorted by position, with a focus on wet track performance, running style and race records. Best wishes to you all and safe travels.
1 โ Mugatu
owner: Mean Joe Racing Stable, Dan Wells
trainer: Jeff Engler
Jockey: joe bravo
Morning line odds: 20-1
He has never run off the track. The only result in which he worked hard in the graded stakes race was a fifth place, just one step away. He may be a player who thrives on wet roads, but I'll pass. He was the second alternate for the Kentucky Derby, but did not run.
2 โ Heavy Uncle
owner: Michael Milam and LC Racing
trainer: robert reed jr.
Jockey: Airado Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 20-1
Trainer Robert Reid is well known in the Midlantic, and although he may not be familiar to the general horse racing fan, he has a strong reputation as a great horse and I think he has a good chance of winning the biggest race of his career here. . The story is good — Uncle Heavy was raised by Reed's sister-in-law Barbara and named after her husband, Reed's brother Mark — but beyond the sentimental support, Uncle Heavy has a chance to pull off an upset on Saturday. He has raced twice on wet tracks and won twice, including the G3 Wizards Stakes. If Imagination were to emerge as the only speed, his stalking style would be compromised (which is likely), but if someone decides to choose Imagination, Uncle Heavy may be able to be tenacious to the end. yeah. He'll be on both the top and bottom of my ticket.
3 โ Seize your freedom
owner: Albaugh Family Stables
trainer: brad cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 6-1
He's pretty much a closer, but that doesn't bode well for his chances in a race that's unlikely to be contested as a speed contest. He thought he was a shot behind in the Derby, but he finished fourth by less than two lengths. He may improve his ranking here, but he will reduce his chances off the track, at least when it comes to wins.
4 โ Mus
owner: Zedan Horse Racing Stable
trainer: bob baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning line odds: scratch
Moose, a popular Preakness horse, was injured during Saturday's race due to high temperatures.
5 โ Mystic Dan
owner: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, Daniel Hamby III, Valley View Farm
trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: brian hernandez jr.
Morning line odds: 5-2
In my preview for the Derby, I wrote, “Another horse who loves hills, he won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths on a muddy field, and that was Saturday. His ability to slow down in the South West after starting his career as an early leader may be the main reason to consider him, but his lack of consistency in his performances is a promising development. The mud helped him move up, but it wasn't enough to win.'' OK, I was right in a way, but I was wrong. With Moose out, two wins from on or off pace early in his career, and a chance of rain, there's nothing to dislike about his chances.
6 โ Grab the gray
owner: my race horse
trainer: D. Wayne Lucas
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Morning line odds: 15-1
One of the few horses who showed a tendency to lead and was able to do so successfully. After leading gate-to-wire on a sloppy course to his first win, he's become more of a stalker type, but could he try to engage with Imagination sooner? It sucks if he does that because Imagination is the better horse, but it sucks because he's not close enough to the pace that Imagination would set if he doesn't. He is used to competing against lower-ranked opponents, having won his last run in the Grade 2 Putt Day Mile, but he thinks the distance may have cost him, and maybe help him in the race. .
7 โ Just Steel
owner: BC Stables, LLC, Henry Schmรผckle
trainer: D. Wayne Lucas
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning line odds: 15-1
Just Steel started out as a pacesetter in the Derby, but then lost ground significantly and finished 17th, 33 lengths behind, and that strategy won't work here either. The horse has a poor track record and is the dam of Triple Crown winner Justify, who won this race in 2018 in one of the worst rainstorms I have ever seen on a racetrack. It doesn't look like he's following in his footsteps.
8 โ Tuscan Gold
owner: William H. Lawrence, Walmac Farms, Stonestreet Stables LLC
trainer: chad brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Morning line odds: 8-1
Raced very lightly compared to his rivals here, the $600,000 yearling only has a first win on his resume, due in January. Trainer Chad Brown saw him from the beginning as a long-distance horse, and he never ran him less than a mile. Despite his talent, this feels like a big challenge. He has no off-course experience and almost no experience of any kind.
9 โ Imagination
owner: Zedan Horse Racing Stable
trainer: bob baffert
Jockey: frankie dettori
Morning line odds: 6-1
Priced at $1.05 million as a yearling, his ownership group includes some of the sport's most powerful hitters, with Baffert as trainer and Dettori as jockey. On paper, everything about this horse screams “superstar.” He has a record of 2 wins and 4 seconds out of six races, and like many Baffert horses, he has a good chance of leading the pack and staying there, especially when there are no other contenders to challenge him. His three 2nd place finishes, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby, were by a wide margin. 6-1 feels generous, so I consider him the most likely winner.
(Mystic Dan Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images)