Vaughn Dalzell breaks down college basketball's rich slate with six picks, including Iowa State vs. West Virginia, Villanova University, and more.
West Virginia vs. Iowa State (-17.5): O/U 134.0
Iowa State returned home from a road loss at Houston, ending its winning streak at four. West Virginia won their home game against UCF, ending their losing streak at four.
Following the previous five games WVU won, the Mountaineers struggled in the first half in the following game. He scores 29, 26, 25, 24, 29 points in the first half against West Virginia, and he fits into that category here in a game against Iowa State and a team that ranks second to him in defensive efficiency.
In the loss, Iowa State essentially dominated in all but one game, allowing 25, 37, 21, 26 and 19 points in the subsequent halves.
The Mountaineers offense shouldn't be able to match the Cyclones defense, so I played West Virginia at odds of -110 with a first-half team total of less than 28.5. If it's 1.5 units, it goes down to 27.5.
choose: West Virginia First Half Team Total 28.5 Under (2u)
Villanova at UConn (-11.5): O/U 132.5
UConn is arguably the best team in the country (along with Houston), and I think overcoming the loss at home proved just how good UConn is at hosting Villanova.
The Wildcats have struggled offensively, going 1-4 in their last five road games and ranking 185th in adjusted efficiency. Villanova has scored 28, 28, 36, 22 and 40 points in its last five road first half games and ranks 353rd and 275th in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, boasting elite 3-point shooting (23.3%) and 2-point defense (43.3%) in Big East home play. UW is 14-0 at home this season and has won 11 of 14 Big East games by 13 points or more. I tip his UConn to the spread.
I'm playing Villanova's under 28.5 first half team total at -130 odds on DraftKings, but I'd probably go down to 27.5 for 1.5 units or UConn's first half spread.
choose: Villanova 1st half team total less than 28.5 (risk 1.5u)
North Carolina (-2.5) vs. Virginia: O/U 130.0
We won cash by betting on Virginia's last two games. Let's continue with Virginia hosting the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Over the last two games, Virginia ranks 351st in offensive efficiency, but 19th in defense. The Cavaliers are the No. 240 team per Bartlevik, above Northern Illinois and below Western Michigan.
UNC was the No. 12 team in that span and the No. 8 team in offense, both with Virginia Tech as past opponents. Rust on offense could be a factor early on as UNC hasn't played the past week, but the defense should be there.
The Tar Heels boast the nation's second-best defense, ranking fourth in 3-point percentage (26.1%) and 11th in 2-point percentage (45.6%) through eight road games. UNC ranks 185th in tempo, and as everyone knows, UVA is second-slowest at home and overall this season, and third-slowest.
I played in the first half of Virginia. The team total has him under 30.5, with odds of -122 on FanDuel, but the 1 unit odds on him drop to 29.5 on DraftKings. I don't expect the Cavaliers' offensive problems to be solved against an elite defense like the Tar Heels.
choose: Virginia 1H Team Total Under 30.5 (1u)
Texas Tech, UCF (-1): O/U 139.5
This is a great spot for the Knights, as UCF has lost four in a row while Texas Tech is 1-4 in their last five road games (three in a row).
The last time these teams met, it was a close game, with Texas Tech pulling away in the final moments at home and winning 66-59. UCF never led in that game, but never trailed by more than 10 points.
Ibrahima Diallo doesn't play for UCF, but he is one of the best rebounders and shot blockers in the country. Diallo's presence will impact Texas Tech here.
Texas Tech scored 31 points in the first half of that game, and going on the road playing at a slower tempo, the Raiders' team total was 32.5 points in the first half. I think Diallo will be the reason Texas Tech goes under 32 points in the first half.
Texas Tech first half team total under 32.5 plays at -112 odds on FanDuel, but it drops to 31.5. I also grabbed UCF's ML at odds of -110.
Since facing the Red Raiders, the Knights have lost two games against BYU, two at home against Cincinnati, and 10 against West Virginia. This is a good buy low spot for UCF.
choose: UCF ML (1u), Texas Tech 1H Team Total Under 32.5 (1u)
Season record: 42-35 (54.5%) +2.31 units
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