The NFL Draft is a challenging exercise and one of those events that no one knows about. We all accept that. But it's also time to accept that NFL teams are getting smarter with their imperfect guesses.
The shape of the 2024 draft, which is scheduled to have three rounds, clearly reflects that.
My task here is to finish the second and third rounds of fantasy football winners and losers. We'll talk about that in a moment. But the first thing we need to do is set your expectations at an affordable price. Home run nominations and high upside nominations have almost disappeared. They advanced to the first round. Thursday's first pass was dominated by the offense (mainly the passing offense), but it's emblematic of how smart NFL teams are today. The offense has become more consistent over the years, and the passing piece is clearly more important than the running piece.
It was only five years ago that several WR superstars like Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf were discovered in the second round. And two more hits, Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin, were called in the third round. However, it was also a draft where receivers were ignored until pick No. 25 (Marquise Brown). The leagues at the time had a different focus, and most of the time, the focus was blurred.
Today we're going to talk about market corrections.
This is my roundabout way of telling you that you need to be reasonable with your fanciful expectations from Friday's NFL Draft results. Some of these players will become popular while others will become reliable fantasy contributors. But if you think there's Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown hiding in the bushes, you're fooling yourself. Unfortunately, like many instant analysis articles, this one may look silly in a few years. Twelve months ago no one was writing sonnets about puka nacua.
About winners and losers
Runner-up: Receiver that lands in a favorable environment.
I can't use the word “ecosystem” because Matt Harmon trademarked it about three years ago. It's his. But it's encouraging to see so many second-round receivers land on teams where they can make some sense right away.
Keon Coleman was the first pick on Day 2, going to a Buffalo offense that needs to distribute away targets for Stefon Diggs. Buffalo has a lot of competition for Ball, including Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Curtis Samuel. Secondary tight end Dawson Knox isn't going away. But while Coleman's boundaries and playmaking skills could make him a pop rookie, his critics will always quibble about his 4.61 in the 40 at the combine.
Coleman's size (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) and catch radius lead me to believe he will be important at some point in 2024. No, he won't be an Opening Day fantasy starter, but he checks that box more than any of the receivers we'll be discussing today.
There are many pundits like Georgia's Rudd McConkie, who was the No. 2 pick in the second round. McConkey is a tight-space technician and could quickly become Justin Herbert's priority target on third down. With the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, there is little competition for the ball in this LAC receiver room. That being said, new coach Jim Harbaugh and new OC Greg Roman likely want to play strong in the AFC West. I mean, they're going to hit rocks as hard as humanly possible. McConkie has a good chance to get on base as a rookie, but I don't think he can hit a home run.
Texas speed merchant Adonai Mitchell felt slighted Friday when his name wasn't called until pick No. 52. But Mitchell should feel lucky to be in a good position to work with a great play-caller in Shane Steichen and a developing quarterback. Anthony Richardson. As early as 2024, the Colts could become a fantasy carnival, running around indoor turf and posting pinball stats. Unfortunately, there's a lot of competition for the ball here — top receiver Michael Pittman is a star, secondary target Josh Downs is a good player, Jonathan Taylor is a touch-hungry player in the backfield, and Richard Son will also run for some touchdowns. In conclusion, Mitchell's speed should be put to good use here. He should be fun, even if he isn't immediately associated with fantasy.
Fantasy Runner-Up: Kyren Williams' Workload
Bell cows are nearly extinct in the NFL these days, but it's a blessing to see them pop up on rare occasions. Williams was one of last year's Unicorn League champions, an underrated fantasy pick who quickly eclipsed other players in the Rams' backfield.
Good luck getting Blake Corum out of the way this year. Colm was selected by the Rams with the 83rd overall pick on Friday. This room is getting more crowded.
Williams remains the starter, is more versatile than Colm, and is clearly a proven veteran. However, this could easily set up as a thunder and lightning situation where both players end up having a game where they get double-digit touches. Williams is still worth considering as a fantasy first-round prospect, and I don't think he'll fall any further than the early second round. However, Colm was not the name he had hoped to be chosen if he already had Williams shares in his portfolio.
Fantasy Choose Your Own Adventure: Roman Wilson
The Steelers have a strong track record of drafting receivers outside of the first round, and Wilson fell lower than expected at No. 84 overall. That being said, the Steelers have a shaky quarterback room and we saw OC Arthur Smith ruin a talented offense in Atlanta. The Steelers expect to profit from this value pick, even if it doesn't happen right away. Perhaps it feels like a cop-out, but Wilson is a yes for a dynasty draftee and a no for a player who plays all season.
Fantasy Loser: Jaylin Polk
The Patriots are a bit like the anti-Steelers when it comes to drafting wideouts. Their resumes have been a mess for years. (Mention N'Keal Harry at your own risk). Polk faces little competition for playing time in New England — the Patriots had perhaps the worst wideout room on record entering this week — but quarterback play has been limited for most of the year. It could be an eventful season, with journeyman Jacoby Brissett poised to be a potential replacement until rookie QB Drake Maye plays. Polk has below-average speed and often wins with his hands and technical chops, so he's probably a reasonable floor pick in the long run. But he doesn't offer much in the way of immediate turnarounds.
Fantasy Losers: Lonely Running Backs
The NFL called 100 names in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, but only four of them were running backs. four! It took some time for the league to get smart about how to value running backs in the draft and at the negotiating table, but the hard truth has arrived. Too many college running backs are still sitting on the couch with their cell phones in hand. I don't want to give anyone that kind of anxiety.
As for the Bucks who were actually selected, well, there are mixed reviews. There are no automatic wins here.
Jonathan Brooks was the first to be called back by the Panthers with the 46th pick. If he stays healthy, Brooks has a good chance of earning a starting spot at Carolina — Tuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are mediocre players. But Brooks tore his ACL last November and may not be ready to contribute much this year. At best, he's a wait-and-see fantasy pick. And we can't ignore that Carolina was the worst team in the NFL by a mile in 2023. This is not a situation that can be resolved quickly. I'm not going to actively rank Brooks on the season board.
The Cardinals should have a young, fun offense heading into 2024, and Trey Benson fits that theme. James Conner, who seems to have broken into the NFL with a leather helmet, remains at the top of the depth chart, but Florida State's Benson will likely pursue an immediate job. Benson suffered a torn ACL in 2020 and has a medical red spot on his file. Benson didn't make bad looks when the Seminoles asked him to catch passes, but they didn't ask for them as often (33 career catches). His ability as a pass blocker will determine how many NFL downs he can realistically take as a pro.
Colm's quickest route to fantasy relevance could get him to the finish line. He is a physical and decisive runner who scored 61 total touchdowns (58 TDs) at Michigan. Teams are typically reluctant to plan or use the goal line, so touchdown predictions must be guessed at until they actually take action. At the very least, Corum is an interesting insurance candidate for Williams' manager, and an expensive lottery ticket for any manager who doesn't have Williams in their squad. Anyone with draft capital in Sean McVay's offense would be interested.
Marshawn Lloyd (No. 88 pick) is likely to be a long-term play for Green Bay, which just handed over the keys to its backfield to Josh Jacobs. Lloyd had major fumbling issues in college, but has ideal NFL size for the position (5-foot-9, 220 pounds) and is capable of breakaway runs. Lloyd's long-term upward trend is more interesting than his short-term relevance.
