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it's dRaft day. Longtime draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.'s day probably started like any other: pumpkin pie. He's ready, we're ready, you're draft ready. That means we can finally stop talking about Top Golf.
Today's NFL updates:
- 🚨 NFL Draft Primer
- 👋 fantasy opportunity
- 🚧 Dear GM: stop it
- 💰 Lions reset WR, OT market
2024 NFL Draft Primer
The Bears are expected to open the draft tonight with the No. 1 pick on USC QB Caleb Williams, but after that, who knows? seriously. National NFL insider Jeff Howe is bracing for mayhem. Detroit is ready. A quick primer:
schedule:
- round 1 Starts tonight at 8pm ET
- 2nd and 3rd round Starting tomorrow, April 26th at 7pm ET
- From the 4th round to the 7th round Starts Saturday, April 27th at noon ET
Outlook: Williams is one of just 13 prospects to participate directly, a group that does not include Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy. The NFL plans to install cameras at the draft parties of 12 prospects outside of Detroit.
Where to watch: The draft will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes and NFL Network.
- Even better: Dane Brugler, Robert Mays, Deanna Russini and Nate Tice will be streaming live starting at 7:30pm ET, with special guests and expert analysis throughout.
Open tab: I follow the live blog to get instant insights from beat writers and NFL insiders, as well as a consensus big board and list of the best players (ideally is going to get Texas DT Byron Murphy).
Things to shout about: From heckling NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to shouting GO JETS as fans inevitably boo the picks, there are plenty of ways to enjoy the draft, a seminal night in fantasy football.
Fantasy Football: The ideal landing spot
Following the NFL Draft, fantasy football guru Jake Seeley's latest rankings arrive this Sunday. Jake outlined the ideal fantasy landing spots for QB, RB, and WR prospects.
QB: Minnesota. “When you have the best wideouts in the game; [Justin Jefferson], there's no question that Minnesota is the perfect landing spot for the quarterback. Just as the 49ers helped the fantasy value of Brock Purdy, the Vikings will do the same with any rookie QB. ”
RB: Dallas, then Cleveland or Vegas. “The obvious answer is the Cowboys.” [who met with Ezekiel Elliott yesterday], but if the Raiders or Browns don't sell their situation, the second-day RB (indicating their concerns) will raise at least one People's Eblow. ”
“Nick Chubb may not look the same in 2024 and Jerome Ford is a great player, but adding a Day 2 running back suggests the job is open in Cleveland. If the Raiders draft him, that suggests Zamir White may not be the answer. Head coach Antonio Pierce has given the backfield plenty of work and has no qualms about deploying a bell cow. ”
WR: Arizona. “The best production opportunity for wideouts lies with the Cardinals. Yes, the Giants and Patriots have big needs, but the quarterback situation is not attractive. A rookie could come in and provide top-20 value. There are other spots available for the No. 1 WR (Bills, Chiefs if Laci Rice is suspended), but only the Cardinals have the opportunity to finish in the top 10.
To find out who to keep an eye on, read Jake's list of the top 80 rookies in this year's fantasy football draft.
6 Common NFL Draft Mistakes
6 things I don't want teams to do in the 2024 NFL Draft:
1. Pull the 2003 Vikings. That year, Minnesota completed a trade with Baltimore that took just 32 seconds to call. However, the league did not receive certification from Baltimore, leading to the wildest scene in NFL Draft history.
The Jaguars and Panthers both took the lead and acquired picks before the Vikings could recover. If a team that doesn't draft a prospect within the deadline “passes,” subsequent teams are free to choose.
2. Don't be too confident. It is not absolutely necessary to overpay for “your man”. There's a good chance you're wrong. Ask anyone who drafted a QB before the 2021 49ers (Trey Lance), 2022 Brock Purdy (Wykes), or 2023 Panthers (Bryce Young).
If that's not enough, there's 13 years of compelling evidence that top-10 QBs are not a sure thing. Mike Jones shared the “inexact science” behind drafting QBs.
3. Draft a RB in the first round. While no one is expected to be selected No. 1, the chart below shows the slight difference in salary between rookie running backs and veterans, and ESPN's Bill Barnwell investigated the position last year.
Instead, you actually want to draft an edge, QB, DT, CB, WR, or LT. As Austin Mock explained, drafting a TE like Brock Bowers isn't all that great.
Four. next. Everyone knows that “the next Josh Allen” means “not an NFL-ready passer, but a passer with NFL-like size.” Another simple translation would be “this year's DK Metcalf” as “college underachiever with great athletic ability.”
Although he didn't point to specific QBs (Drake Maye, Joe Milton) or WRs (Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Leggett), some compared Will Revis to Allen last year. It reminded me that some people were asking if Quentin Johnston was the next Metcalf. . There's a reason former GM Randy Mueller is nervous about Drake Maye.
Five. Trade down just for +EV. As Alec Lewis wrote in an article about the NFL's approach to the draft, research shows teams should trade past and future more often to accumulate picks.
But regardless of what the trade value chart says, this does not imply that teams need to continually trade back to acquire more fourth- and fifth-round picks; Context matters. Mark Puleo wrote a great overview of the evolution of these charts starting with legendary Cowboys coach Jimmie Johnson.
6. Falling into the sunk cost fallacy. “This is how bad teams stay bad teams,” Robert Mays said on a recent podcast when discussing the idea that the Giants could pass on a first-round quarterback by signing Daniel Jones. ” he expressed it well.
It's worth noting that JJ McCarthy said he had “some idea” he would be. selected by the Giants.
Teams shouldn't release talented players just because they're warm to the position, especially quarterbacks, who have the highest salary cap allowance. Look at the Ravens' success in drafting the best players at the moment and Houston's offseason so far.
around the NFL
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and OT Penei Sewell Both received four-year contract extensions from Detroit, making them the highest-paid players at their positions. St. Brown will average $30 million a year, while Sewell will make $28 million. Jared Goff doesn't have a contract yet.
Cowboys DE Micah Parsons As you may have noticed, this option is based on Parsons being labeled as a defensive end rather than a linebacker, which would save Dallas about $3 million. Parsons' contract extension is expected to make him the NFL's highest-paid defensive player, potentially surpassing DE Nick Bosa's $34 million.
Other members of the 2021 class with fifth-year options picked up: Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Penei Sewell (more on him below), Patrick Surtain II, DeVonta Smith, Gregory Rousseau. , Jeran Phillips. Teams have until May 2nd to exercise his options (full list). Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman has signed a two-year extension.
Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson has requested a trade, but the Bengals have no intention of trading him. Hendrickson finished 2023 second in the NFL with 17.5 sacks, but signed an extension last offseason that will keep him in Cincinnati through 2026.
Jacob's Recommendations
📕 Bill Belichick: A busy man. From “The Pat McAfee Show” to “Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli,” Belichick is working on books and podcasts, and his time away from coaching appears to be paying off. There's a story about Andrew Marchand. (The Athletic)
📺 Twenty years ago, Eli Manning said no. The 2004 NFL Draft was more dramatic than any other playoff game. NFL Films does a great job of summarizing what was a tough day for Ben Roethlisberger. (YouTube)
So, what's the boldest move in Round 1? The best answers will be published in tomorrow's newsletter.
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the bounce 🏀 | The Windup ⚾ | full time ⚽ | prime tires 🏁 | until saturday 🏈
(photograph:
Gregory Schamus/Getty Images)
